{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bde222b9-14ae-4476-b05d-d20cb0a5c00d", "symbol": "AROGRANITE", "name": "Aro Granite Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.802, "architecture_energy": 21.596, "architecture_maturity": 25.67, "architecture_confidence": 79.048, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.49, "rotation_up": 14.81, "upward_expansion": 13.03, "deceleration": 52.6, "rotation_down": 47.87, "downward_expansion": 65.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.248667, 25.345273, 25.549905, 25.513269 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.33, "trend_reference": 25.87, "distance_from_trend": -0.020874, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 42.808077, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.408289, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.450783, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.146851, "excess_performance": -0.103142, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020874, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076357, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.408289, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033332, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134508, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00382, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.146851, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.540015, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 84473, "relative_activity": 1.695001, "balance": 0.540015, "dry_up": 0.922405, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06675, "annualized_volatility": 0.437398, "from_high_reference": -0.444883, "from_low_reference": 0.356722 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.87, "fair_value_reference": 42.808077, "structural_low": 18.67, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.043365, "positive_rate": 0.304348, "directional_follow_through": 0.304348, "median_excess_return": -0.032468, "regime_survival": 0.608696, "best_return": 0.17779, "worst_return": -0.176429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.08656, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.124146, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.293242, "worst_return": -0.306024, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.180494, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.198121, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.136739, "worst_return": -0.384172, "sufficient": true 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"typical_volume": 54169.85, "trend": 26.446, "fair_value": 43.210769, "relative_strength": -15.660312, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.698794, "energy": 24.278487, "activity_lines": [ 25.387333, 25.454364, 25.519286, 25.699441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.01, "volume": 33502, "typical_volume": 54148.5, "trend": 26.233667, "fair_value": 43.100256, "relative_strength": -12.979584, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.329928, "energy": 29.287591, "activity_lines": [ 25.178, 25.356727, 25.508381, 25.606796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.440001, "volume": 51793, "typical_volume": 49681.15, "trend": 25.986, "fair_value": 42.946667, "relative_strength": -13.127931, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.40601, "energy": 25.621249, "activity_lines": [ 25.222667, 25.360182, 25.537953, 25.555592 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.33, "volume": 84473, "typical_volume": 49836.55, "trend": 25.87, "fair_value": 42.808077, "relative_strength": -13.450783, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.802075, "energy": 21.596334, "activity_lines": [ 25.248667, 25.345273, 25.549905, 25.513269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }