{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bdef2575-78f4-4737-9159-c36d953e5d6b", "symbol": "AYM", "name": "Anglesey Mining plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 1.066, "architecture_energy": 2.514, "architecture_maturity": 60.993, "architecture_confidence": 38.46, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.31, "rotation_up": 23.35, "upward_expansion": 24.38, "deceleration": 47.82, "rotation_down": 33.23, "downward_expansion": 55.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0471, 0.046118, 0.045726, 0.047462 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.06, "trend_reference": 0.051017, "distance_from_trend": 0.176086, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.09225, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.349593, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.324712, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.04, "excess_performance": -0.091235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.176086, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038932, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.349593, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.19994, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.133247, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.400044, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.358136, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3751166, "relative_activity": 4.148324, "balance": 4.358136, "dry_up": 1.448431, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.151051, "annualized_volatility": 1.144325, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 2.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.051017, "fair_value_reference": 0.09225, "structural_low": 0.035, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.447368, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.008516, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 1.818182, "worst_return": -0.388889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.053162, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.080201, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.526316, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.124801, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.178172, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.131034, "worst_return": -0.395833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.294118, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.411765, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.433992, "energy": 39.540165, "activity_lines": [ 0.043533, 0.045018, 0.045586, 0.048442 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.04, "volume": 286543, "typical_volume": 816308.15, "trend": 0.052, "fair_value": 0.093593, "relative_strength": -25.598229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.939665, "energy": 54.759451, "activity_lines": [ 0.041767, 0.044091, 0.044848, 0.047625 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0405, "volume": 757860, "typical_volume": 770961.8, "trend": 0.051017, "fair_value": 0.092859, "relative_strength": -24.179137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.188883, "energy": 55.522571, "activity_lines": [ 0.040867, 0.043327, 0.044324, 0.046883 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.06, "volume": 3751166, "typical_volume": 904260.6, "trend": 0.051017, "fair_value": 0.09225, "relative_strength": 13.324712, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.065911, "energy": 2.514106, "activity_lines": [ 0.0471, 0.046118, 0.045726, 0.047462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }