{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bdef30ff-18cf-4200-bc37-4bdb85cea973", "symbol": "SBGI", "name": "Sinclair Broadcast Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.472, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.933, "architecture_energy": 21.22, "architecture_maturity": 26.223, "architecture_confidence": 91.17, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.45, "rotation_up": 20.6, "upward_expansion": 5.88, "deceleration": 42.89, "rotation_down": 46.42, "downward_expansion": 72.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.887333, 14.018545, 14.077675, 14.104549 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.2, "trend_reference": 14.160516, "distance_from_trend": 0.002788, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.958546, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.095802, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.015817, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.074618, "excess_performance": -0.112836, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002788, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021322, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.095802, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003463, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120158, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038315, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.074618, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.149328, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4052623, "relative_activity": 1.684752, "balance": 1.149328, "dry_up": 1.139144, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089756, "annualized_volatility": 0.449202, "from_high_reference": -0.163755, "from_low_reference": 0.246753 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.160516, "fair_value_reference": 12.958546, "structural_low": 12.237022, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.012741, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.000167, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.268127, "worst_return": -0.209742, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.033598, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.092887, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.257026, "worst_return": -0.23416, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.067874, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.110219, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.39712, "worst_return": -0.253432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.19016, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.204213, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.320979, "worst_return": -0.418355, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.036557, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.145274, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016393, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.142088, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095329, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036874, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.131782, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094305, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.084017, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": 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"volume": 3295061, "typical_volume": 2452126.85, "trend": 14.29017, "fair_value": 12.892517, "relative_strength": -13.067548, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.998573, "energy": 7.319234, "activity_lines": [ 14.378, 14.15489, 14.192821, 14.210529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.82, "volume": 2282531, "typical_volume": 2405621.1, "trend": 14.238943, "fair_value": 12.909784, "relative_strength": -11.617145, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.48087, "energy": 9.837988, "activity_lines": [ 14.239333, 14.117513, 14.153929, 14.180195 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.49, "volume": 2590561, "typical_volume": 2404446.75, "trend": 14.197629, "fair_value": 12.926283, "relative_strength": -11.955193, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.583225, "energy": 20.713743, "activity_lines": [ 14.006, 14.023854, 14.092903, 14.131876 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.74, "volume": 2034997, "typical_volume": 2352221.55, "trend": 14.165936, "fair_value": 12.940811, "relative_strength": -10.515287, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.998288, "energy": 26.295137, "activity_lines": [ 13.868, 13.980545, 14.063152, 14.102352 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.2, "volume": 4052623, "typical_volume": 2405471.95, "trend": 14.160516, "fair_value": 12.958546, "relative_strength": -12.015817, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.933239, "energy": 21.220162, "activity_lines": [ 13.887333, 14.018545, 14.077675, 14.104549 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }