{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bdf1e14f-a3c9-4b68-9d70-e6fbd6fd89b8", "symbol": "NRP", "name": "Natural Resource Partners LP", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.661, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.823, "architecture_energy": 34.93, "architecture_maturity": 46.57, "architecture_confidence": 64.769, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.92, "rotation_up": 28.78, "upward_expansion": 18.91, "deceleration": 62.47, "rotation_down": 42.6, "downward_expansion": 68.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 100.857333, 100.373273, 103.065404, 106.681226 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 106.96, "trend_reference": 110.819545, "distance_from_trend": -0.034827, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 93.311319, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.14627, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.244475, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.098733, "excess_performance": -0.224357, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034827, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00582, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.14627, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100481, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112445, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046569, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.098733, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.364139, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 421946, "relative_activity": 1.995158, "balance": 1.364139, "dry_up": 1.284631, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052919, "annualized_volatility": 0.229881, "from_high_reference": -0.15826, "from_low_reference": 0.119883 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 110.819545, "fair_value_reference": 93.311319, "structural_low": 95.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.015647, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00622, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.062142, "worst_return": -0.037755, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.064441, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.033239, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.064441, "worst_return": 0.064441, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.08892, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.077211, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.08892, "worst_return": 0.08892, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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101.663402, 106.650143, 109.57252 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 96.4, "volume": 198919, "typical_volume": 198200.45, "trend": 111.113206, "fair_value": 92.461468, "relative_strength": -17.530961, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.658488, "energy": 73.592884, "activity_lines": [ 98.548, 100.426972, 105.273053, 108.612726 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 98.0, "volume": 180193, "typical_volume": 193949.65, "trend": 110.997026, "fair_value": 92.742373, "relative_strength": -15.442041, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.953869, "energy": 65.440195, "activity_lines": [ 98.126, 99.741091, 104.160956, 107.766713 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 98.06, "volume": 285663, "typical_volume": 200931.85, "trend": 110.848014, "fair_value": 92.991398, "relative_strength": -15.988738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.204911, "energy": 53.950742, "activity_lines": [ 97.91, 99.213818, 103.143746, 106.932066 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 106.96, "volume": 421946, "typical_volume": 211485.0, "trend": 110.819545, "fair_value": 93.311319, "relative_strength": -11.244475, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.822658, "energy": 34.92996, "activity_lines": [ 100.857333, 100.373273, 103.065404, 106.681226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }