{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bdfdab5f-376c-4569-8e75-d2483ddf8f01", "symbol": "MSBI", "name": "Midland States Bancorp, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.019, "architecture_energy": 77.627, "architecture_maturity": 54.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.754, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.52, "rotation_up": 75.35, "upward_expansion": 93.87, "deceleration": 45.23, "rotation_down": 17.45, "downward_expansion": 15.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.776667, 31.831273, 30.027857, 28.235271 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 33.49, "trend_reference": 26.103543, "distance_from_trend": 0.282968, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.53862, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.630587, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 32.452441, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.433104, "excess_performance": 0.24565, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.282968, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.189936, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.630587, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.197788, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.324524, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092479, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.433104, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.698666, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 917221, "relative_activity": 1.142382, "balance": 2.698666, "dry_up": 1.232219, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054463, "annualized_volatility": 0.277134, "from_high_reference": -0.045869, "from_low_reference": 1.46109 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.103543, "fair_value_reference": 20.53862, "structural_low": 19.406103, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.007507, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.005367, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.190374, "worst_return": -0.113586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.053738, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.043115, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.323879, "worst_return": -0.246506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.018473, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.173925, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.192717, "worst_return": -0.296149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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749198.9, "trend": 24.875013, "fair_value": 20.28451, "relative_strength": 32.020495, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.315273, "energy": 66.668758, "activity_lines": [ 30.709333, 30.073091, 28.24264, 26.714051 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.25, "volume": 969146, "typical_volume": 769435.75, "trend": 25.261356, "fair_value": 20.36296, "relative_strength": 37.686244, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.910844, "energy": 68.527916, "activity_lines": [ 31.282667, 30.603636, 28.810268, 27.189856 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.67, "volume": 1217977, "typical_volume": 800851.95, "trend": 25.694708, "fair_value": 20.451051, "relative_strength": 41.309226, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.644215, "energy": 71.554146, "activity_lines": [ 32.141333, 31.288727, 29.459361, 27.732349 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.49, "volume": 917221, "typical_volume": 802902.15, "trend": 26.103543, "fair_value": 20.53862, "relative_strength": 32.452441, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.019242, "energy": 77.627413, "activity_lines": [ 32.776667, 31.831273, 30.027857, 28.235271 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }