{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be0e038d-51d3-4cd3-893e-46694fd91431", "symbol": "KSM-F158", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM ETF (4D) S&P Technology", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.58, "architecture_energy": 63.931, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.755, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.86, "rotation_up": 27.87, "upward_expansion": 18.0, "deceleration": 66.96, "rotation_down": 53.01, "downward_expansion": 77.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 114.76, 114.610909, 2778.793333, 4476.814194 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 117.8, "trend_reference": 6392.54, "distance_from_trend": -0.981572, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8097.052564, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.985451, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.662995, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.98696, "excess_performance": -1.015861, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.981572, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.334713, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.985451, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.219755, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.98663, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.823721, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.98696, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.123201, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 96413, "relative_activity": 1.894973, "balance": 4.123201, "dry_up": 1.191991, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.968787, "annualized_volatility": 6.339584, "from_high_reference": -0.989435, "from_low_reference": 0.094796 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6392.54, "fair_value_reference": 8097.052564, "structural_low": 107.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.008845, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004274, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.141221, "worst_return": -0.090198, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.013263, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.018111, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.201693, "worst_return": -0.124028, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.163065, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.044844, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.243369, "worst_return": -0.126873, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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4424.375714, 5815.001935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 115.1, "volume": 18380, "typical_volume": 43091.35, "trend": 7028.033333, "fair_value": 8181.365385, "relative_strength": -98.789578, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.233236, "energy": 68.323948, "activity_lines": [ 113.993333, 704.836364, 3833.5, 5348.393548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 112.4, "volume": 93689, "typical_volume": 46880.85, "trend": 6711.646667, "fair_value": 8138.816667, "relative_strength": -98.754924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.095378, "energy": 67.934623, "activity_lines": [ 113.426667, 313.163636, 3284.671429, 4902.223656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 117.8, "volume": 96413, "typical_volume": 50878.3, "trend": 6392.54, "fair_value": 8097.052564, "relative_strength": -98.662995, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.580142, "energy": 63.931047, "activity_lines": [ 114.76, 114.610909, 2778.793333, 4476.814194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }