{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be0e1480-41a4-49f0-b50d-9d30cfc23140", "symbol": "PVT", "name": "Pivotal Metals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.395, "architecture_energy": 17.352, "architecture_maturity": 60.03, "architecture_confidence": 53.586, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.3, "rotation_up": 32.59, "upward_expansion": 19.09, "deceleration": 43.44, "rotation_down": 23.23, "downward_expansion": 53.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.014067, 0.013527, 0.013748, 0.014394 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.014, "trend_reference": 0.015567, "distance_from_trend": -0.100642, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.013958, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.002985, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.909062, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.176471, "excess_performance": -0.240176, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.100642, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056566, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.002985, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056506, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089091, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14077, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.176471, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.659148, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4300062, "relative_activity": 0.3356, "balance": 3.659148, "dry_up": 1.820313, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.192308, "annualized_volatility": 0.871015, "from_high_reference": -0.5625, "from_low_reference": 1.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.015567, "fair_value_reference": 0.013958, "structural_low": 0.011, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.055556, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.514286, "median_excess_return": -0.04305, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.18254, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.168668, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.307692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.178215, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.14937, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.290323, "worst_return": -0.604167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.351443, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.43439, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.307692, "worst_return": -0.607595, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.210526, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.307692, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.625, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": 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-58.167213, "energy": 50.839706, "activity_lines": [ 0.0124, 0.012964, 0.0138, 0.014757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.015, "volume": 63058443, "typical_volume": 13706600.2, "trend": 0.0157, "fair_value": 0.014099, "relative_strength": 4.114333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.492743, "energy": 23.924472, "activity_lines": [ 0.013333, 0.013236, 0.013824, 0.014716 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.014, "volume": 10563209, "typical_volume": 13663285.9, "trend": 0.015667, "fair_value": 0.014048, "relative_strength": -2.928744, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.797552, "energy": 17.34482, "activity_lines": [ 0.013667, 0.013309, 0.013776, 0.014606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.014, "volume": 15373418, "typical_volume": 13475857.95, "trend": 0.015633, "fair_value": 0.014003, "relative_strength": -5.587496, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.485752, "energy": 17.961451, "activity_lines": [ 0.013933, 0.013418, 0.013752, 0.014499 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.014, "volume": 4300062, "typical_volume": 12813062.05, "trend": 0.015567, "fair_value": 0.013958, "relative_strength": -8.909062, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.394934, "energy": 17.352057, "activity_lines": [ 0.014067, 0.013527, 0.013748, 0.014394 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }