{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be0ef684-e691-4304-85f1-3805c4b4cf1f", "symbol": "DGR", "name": "CI U.S. Quality Dividend Growth Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 65.684, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 90.153, "architecture_energy": 76.155, "architecture_maturity": 14.569, "architecture_confidence": 81.573, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.44, "rotation_up": 67.11, "upward_expansion": 90.63, "deceleration": 45.66, "rotation_down": 22.07, "downward_expansion": 14.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.434668, 54.106557, 53.792464, 53.197479 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 55.650002, "trend_reference": 52.561771, "distance_from_trend": 0.058754, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.197095, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.204621, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.082339, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.060645, "excess_performance": -0.059777, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058754, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022222, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.204621, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01549, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040823, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011587, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060645, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.709302, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 700, "relative_activity": 0.108108, "balance": 2.709302, "dry_up": 0.764479, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013078, "annualized_volatility": 0.11506, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.152413 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.561771, "fair_value_reference": 46.197095, "structural_low": 48.290001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.013853, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": -0.006145, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.063711, "worst_return": -0.051299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.025744, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.0244, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.088048, "worst_return": -0.034641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.047063, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.009256, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.129134, "worst_return": -0.107034, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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53.718487, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 8340.0, "trend": 51.810683, "fair_value": 45.471014, "relative_strength": -5.605984, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.520071, "energy": 53.32215, "activity_lines": [ 53.876795, 53.757486, 52.768099, 52.34537 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 52.970001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7890.0, "trend": 51.884365, "fair_value": 45.569716, "relative_strength": -6.667962, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.099418, "energy": 36.748622, "activity_lines": [ 53.538834, 53.65224, 52.838188, 52.420164 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 53.68, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7595.0, "trend": 51.982045, "fair_value": 45.675203, "relative_strength": -5.858646, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.828796, "energy": 33.950585, "activity_lines": [ 53.516039, 53.676267, 52.973505, 52.536012 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 54.400002, "volume": 13700, "typical_volume": 7825.0, "trend": 52.111337, "fair_value": 45.78214, "relative_strength": -4.477167, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.180354, "energy": 44.207325, "activity_lines": [ 53.790354, 53.811041, 53.170388, 52.692009 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 53.84, "volume": 13100, "typical_volume": 8240.0, "trend": 52.228913, "fair_value": 45.880773, "relative_strength": -5.0879, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.38556, "energy": 45.663597, "activity_lines": [ 53.833233, 53.818906, 53.304596, 52.803536 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.529999, "volume": 3100, "typical_volume": 7465.0, "trend": 52.319183, "fair_value": 45.976985, "relative_strength": -5.621751, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.325504, "energy": 45.920475, "activity_lines": [ 53.769333, 53.759854, 53.402034, 52.887477 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.900002, "volume": 2900, "typical_volume": 7345.0, "trend": 52.425776, "fair_value": 46.081276, "relative_strength": -4.313715, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.676544, "energy": 47.673502, "activity_lines": [ 53.841334, 53.771864, 53.522765, 52.989465 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 55.650002, "volume": 700, "typical_volume": 6475.0, "trend": 52.561771, "fair_value": 46.197095, "relative_strength": -4.082339, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.152659, "energy": 76.154998, "activity_lines": [ 54.434668, 54.106557, 53.792464, 53.197479 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }