{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be104dea-d7a7-4033-aa71-a223fa6251fd", "symbol": "IYW", "name": "ISHARES TRUST U.S. TECHNOLOGY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.829, "architecture_energy": 37.687, "architecture_maturity": 63.502, "architecture_confidence": 94.582, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.84, "rotation_up": 36.87, "upward_expansion": 64.99, "deceleration": 93.92, "rotation_down": 28.84, "downward_expansion": 14.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 243.947333, 243.89297, 240.380085, 230.263689 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 254.05, "trend_reference": 217.968231, "distance_from_trend": 0.165537, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 163.833736, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.550657, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.136945, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.31384, "excess_performance": 0.188215, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.165537, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07367, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.550657, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015301, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.091369, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029351, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.31384, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.281753, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3306467, "relative_activity": 0.653603, "balance": 2.281753, "dry_up": 0.565285, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055173, "annualized_volatility": 0.264648, "from_high_reference": -0.02639, "from_low_reference": 0.472812 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 217.968231, "fair_value_reference": 163.833736, "structural_low": 172.493221, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.008497, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.000142, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.104161, "worst_return": -0.123137, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.052763, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.015491, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.160098, "worst_return": -0.185327, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.188128, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.052738, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.245048, "worst_return": -0.046214, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071118, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.112032, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015442, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022423, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002894, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": 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"activity_lines": [ 246.346719, 245.661821, 233.416416, 223.173631 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 239.24, "volume": 2842796, "typical_volume": 6689452.55, "trend": 213.834831, "fair_value": 161.255122, "relative_strength": 7.620401, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.840285, "energy": 39.230755, "activity_lines": [ 243.99, 244.712953, 235.260898, 224.897877 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 236.08, "volume": 2774211, "typical_volume": 6098067.85, "trend": 214.94455, "fair_value": 162.047284, "relative_strength": 6.590959, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.80109, "energy": 33.349685, "activity_lines": [ 240.948, 243.177403, 236.567366, 226.333049 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 238.04, "volume": 2515247, "typical_volume": 5336523.9, "trend": 216.220537, "fair_value": 162.8806, "relative_strength": 6.101051, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.423565, "energy": 27.334072, "activity_lines": [ 239.725333, 242.046444, 237.832586, 227.823078 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 254.05, "volume": 3306467, "typical_volume": 5058828.15, "trend": 217.968231, "fair_value": 163.833736, "relative_strength": 9.136945, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.829237, "energy": 37.687396, "activity_lines": [ 243.947333, 243.89297, 240.380085, 230.263689 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }