{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be19c3fd-e792-445a-a35c-8a87d4c337d2", "symbol": "OCEAN", "name": "Ocean GeoLoop AS", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.397, "architecture_energy": 62.992, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 29.96, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 54.25, "rotation_down": 52.49, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.454667, 0.461909, 0.678595, 1.093323 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.45, "trend_reference": 1.5995, "distance_from_trend": -0.718662, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.91625, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.923938, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -85.586093, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.711538, "excess_performance": -0.836532, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.718662, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.369945, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.923938, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146849, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.855861, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193587, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.711538, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.128021, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30659, "relative_activity": 0.183137, "balance": 0.128021, "dry_up": 1.370496, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.474017, "annualized_volatility": 1.879123, "from_high_reference": -0.918919, "from_low_reference": 0.125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.5995, "fair_value_reference": 5.91625, "structural_low": 0.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.083479, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.089365, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 1.564103, "worst_return": -0.616129, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.305843, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.313648, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.384943, "worst_return": -0.733728, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.219522, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.242228, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.036932, "worst_return": -0.597619, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.755758, "energy": 85.319933, "activity_lines": [ 0.464133, 0.529218, 1.024081, 1.428875 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.45, "volume": 108556, "typical_volume": 132198.7, "trend": 1.7867, "fair_value": 6.183019, "relative_strength": -86.519901, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.78922, "energy": 80.534691, "activity_lines": [ 0.459733, 0.491564, 0.913648, 1.338228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.484, "volume": 115674, "typical_volume": 137929.3, "trend": 1.726167, "fair_value": 6.089968, "relative_strength": -85.362082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.305049, "energy": 70.258636, "activity_lines": [ 0.466, 0.481, 0.823357, 1.254183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.45, "volume": 662849, "typical_volume": 169219.1, "trend": 1.667167, "fair_value": 6.003109, "relative_strength": -85.999017, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.945131, "energy": 72.380454, "activity_lines": [ 0.458, 0.468273, 0.746571, 1.171849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.45, "volume": 30659, "typical_volume": 167409.85, "trend": 1.5995, "fair_value": 5.91625, "relative_strength": -85.586093, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.397087, "energy": 62.99242, "activity_lines": [ 0.454667, 0.461909, 0.678595, 1.093323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }