{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be1dea4e-943f-41fb-bd79-51156c372730", "symbol": "ANTIN", "name": "Antin Infrastructure Partners SAS", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.506, "architecture_energy": 39.157, "architecture_maturity": 40.61, "architecture_confidence": 74.876, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.74, "rotation_up": 24.62, "upward_expansion": 12.05, "deceleration": 59.31, "rotation_down": 47.33, "downward_expansion": 73.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.924, 8.920515, 9.1955, 9.388165 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.34, "trend_reference": 9.640805, "distance_from_trend": -0.031201, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.59939, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.118817, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.882012, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.066, "excess_performance": -0.119311, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031201, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052642, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.118817, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003665, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13882, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03913, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.066, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.98287, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 390078, "relative_activity": 2.295277, "balance": 1.98287, "dry_up": 1.78226, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04516, "annualized_volatility": 0.294246, "from_high_reference": -0.202177, "from_low_reference": 0.105325 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.640805, "fair_value_reference": 10.59939, "structural_low": 8.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.009861, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": 0.005796, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.175258, "worst_return": -0.128284, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.013101, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.052306, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.269227, "worst_return": -0.178091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.022826, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.04836, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.131619, "worst_return": -0.254031, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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169291.0, "trend": 9.866139, "fair_value": 10.683464, "relative_strength": -16.169173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.905063, "energy": 67.262586, "activity_lines": [ 8.888667, 9.02899, 9.387416, 9.565159 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.55, "volume": 339804, "typical_volume": 176517.5, "trend": 9.793139, "fair_value": 10.649165, "relative_strength": -19.012091, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.126839, "energy": 72.189503, "activity_lines": [ 8.766667, 8.915871, 9.289682, 9.480247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.73, "volume": 360212, "typical_volume": 179758.45, "trend": 9.704139, "fair_value": 10.621235, "relative_strength": -18.049233, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.287009, "energy": 62.588159, "activity_lines": [ 8.744667, 8.85667, 9.212186, 9.411657 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.34, "volume": 390078, "typical_volume": 169948.1, "trend": 9.640805, "fair_value": 10.59939, "relative_strength": -13.882012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.505713, "energy": 39.157025, "activity_lines": [ 8.924, 8.920515, 9.1955, 9.388165 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }