{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be1ebe48-54f1-4bc2-9d6a-3673e8148410", "symbol": "BBL", "name": "Bharat Bijlee Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -44.226, "architecture_energy": 61.345, "architecture_maturity": 10.82, "architecture_confidence": 84.294, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.45, "rotation_up": 14.36, "upward_expansion": 26.92, "deceleration": 49.38, "rotation_down": 71.26, "downward_expansion": 54.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 2493.204964, 2589.673735, 2667.295016, 2640.945489 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2329.399902, "trend_reference": 2618.035002, "distance_from_trend": -0.110249, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3059.326911, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.238591, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.031881, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.17895, "excess_performance": -0.135241, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.110249, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023294, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.238591, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178694, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150319, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165508, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.17895, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.71238, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 375240, "relative_activity": 1.878541, "balance": 0.71238, "dry_up": 0.954394, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071494, "annualized_volatility": 0.441085, "from_high_reference": -0.317092, "from_low_reference": 0.135351 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2618.035002, "fair_value_reference": 3059.326911, "structural_low": 2051.699951, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.001807, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.054313, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.001807, "worst_return": -0.001807, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.214627, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.188984, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.214627, "worst_return": -0.214627, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.081159, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.144352, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.081159, "worst_return": -0.081159, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031378, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142486, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030353, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.267914, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.067363, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.8072, "energy": 20.587082, "activity_lines": [ 2638.799381, 2693.181019, 2710.56788, 2667.847001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2534.0, "volume": 113746, "typical_volume": 187151.55, "trend": 2636.421672, "fair_value": 3056.180371, "relative_strength": -7.159598, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.493179, "energy": 33.751882, "activity_lines": [ 2591.754183, 2657.84375, 2699.035739, 2660.753345 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2329.399902, "volume": 375240, "typical_volume": 199750.75, "trend": 2618.035002, "fair_value": 3059.326911, "relative_strength": -15.031881, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.225888, "energy": 61.34486, "activity_lines": [ 2493.204964, 2589.673735, 2667.295016, 2640.945489 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }