{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be215733-03ec-4a3c-ad55-b8395f0223a8", "symbol": "AJBU", "name": "Keppel DC REIT", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 50.815, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.73, "architecture_energy": 29.782, "architecture_maturity": 27.01, "architecture_confidence": 81.245, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.77, "rotation_up": 21.85, "upward_expansion": 7.83, "deceleration": 57.74, "rotation_down": 45.93, "downward_expansion": 72.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.213994, 2.216818, 2.24749, 2.257351 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.2, "trend_reference": 2.259399, "distance_from_trend": -0.02629, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.009528, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.094784, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.452766, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.013453, "excess_performance": -0.168288, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02629, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000941, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.094784, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077952, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.184528, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124271, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.013453, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.649609, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 104732900, "relative_activity": 2.202293, "balance": 0.649609, "dry_up": 1.768884, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032292, "annualized_volatility": 0.151188, "from_high_reference": -0.090909, "from_low_reference": 0.033057 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.259399, "fair_value_reference": 2.009528, "structural_low": 2.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.025534, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.012336, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.087209, "worst_return": 0.007276, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.060228, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.006464, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.079758, "worst_return": 0.040698, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.015016, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.069362, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.051712, "worst_return": -0.02168, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.371594, 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"2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041096, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008658, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.000173, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022831, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065166, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052174, "active": false }, { 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2.217752, 2.238108, 2.26574, 2.266852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.193858, "volume": 66025900, "typical_volume": 43279653.55, "trend": 2.256962, "fair_value": 2.005502, "relative_strength": -18.038991, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.933049, "energy": 43.461244, "activity_lines": [ 2.210109, 2.22692, 2.257945, 2.262856 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.23, "volume": 90370200, "typical_volume": 44581913.8, "trend": 2.258355, "fair_value": 2.007611, "relative_strength": -16.807707, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.393996, "energy": 22.355515, "activity_lines": [ 2.218256, 2.224051, 2.254099, 2.261116 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.2, "volume": 104732900, "typical_volume": 47556288.8, "trend": 2.259399, "fair_value": 2.009528, "relative_strength": -18.452766, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.729554, "energy": 29.782142, "activity_lines": [ 2.213994, 2.216818, 2.24749, 2.257351 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }