{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be275e35-e868-419b-9fb5-f457ca1a15cb", "symbol": "GEO", "name": "Geox S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 52.3, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 28.131, "architecture_energy": 16.548, "architecture_maturity": 19.742, "architecture_confidence": 40.416, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.41, "rotation_up": 44.34, "upward_expansion": 42.6, "deceleration": 37.29, "rotation_down": 26.09, "downward_expansion": 12.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.285033, 0.284355, 0.281312, 0.280174 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.2895, "trend_reference": 0.282167, "distance_from_trend": 0.025989, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.472212, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.386928, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.393603, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.028523, "excess_performance": -0.199415, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025989, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028184, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.386928, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06993, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.163936, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028224, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028523, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.237478, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1180838, "relative_activity": 0.764837, "balance": 1.237478, "dry_up": 0.679639, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051946, "annualized_volatility": 0.315142, "from_high_reference": -0.194715, "from_low_reference": 0.186475 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.282167, "fair_value_reference": 0.472212, "structural_low": 0.244, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.012207, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.050979, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.160648, "worst_return": -0.136727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.087671, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.071837, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.200466, "worst_return": -0.170476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.179452, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.276839, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.193511, "worst_return": -0.320339, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.271233, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.352358, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.004076, "worst_return": -0.321033, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2022-11-18", "end": "2022-11-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006039, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-12-02", "end": "2022-12-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035366, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-12-30", "end": "2023-01-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046077, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-01-20", "end": "2023-04-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.256678, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-04-14", "end": "2023-06-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.191622, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-06-09", "end": "2023-07-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05275, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-07-21", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.153754, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.080822, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.064163, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-11", 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"relative_strength": -15.911466, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.917888, "energy": 21.329865, "activity_lines": [ 0.285633, 0.282173, 0.279145, 0.280253 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.282, "volume": 1341357, "typical_volume": 1931239.0, "trend": 0.284333, "fair_value": 0.478664, "relative_strength": -16.417498, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.505091, "energy": 17.149729, "activity_lines": [ 0.284567, 0.282991, 0.279731, 0.280046 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.28, "volume": 984459, "typical_volume": 1731884.35, "trend": 0.283183, "fair_value": 0.475356, "relative_strength": -17.137127, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.733095, "energy": 12.945856, "activity_lines": [ 0.283367, 0.283, 0.280117, 0.279767 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.2895, "volume": 1180838, "typical_volume": 1543907.35, "trend": 0.282167, "fair_value": 0.472212, "relative_strength": -16.393603, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.130752, "energy": 16.548037, "activity_lines": [ 0.285033, 0.284355, 0.281312, 0.280174 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }