{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be296a25-38a8-4a4f-ad28-ddb32e766354", "symbol": "PCN", "name": "PIMCO Corporate & Income Strategy Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 59.94, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -3.183, "architecture_energy": 3.256, "architecture_maturity": 19.744, "architecture_confidence": 79.118, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 76.99, "rotation_up": 24.11, "upward_expansion": 30.78, "deceleration": 41.81, "rotation_down": 28.23, "downward_expansion": 43.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.723168, 11.709223, 11.6987, 11.713905 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 11.85, "trend_reference": 11.79803, "distance_from_trend": 0.004405, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.18644, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.059318, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.299319, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.032509, "excess_performance": -0.158134, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004405, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006395, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.059318, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016411, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112993, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004244, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.032509, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.951372, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1885448, "relative_activity": 1.180394, "balance": 0.951372, "dry_up": 1.027007, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018505, "annualized_volatility": 0.10806, "from_high_reference": -0.046726, "from_low_reference": 0.069391 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.79803, "fair_value_reference": 11.18644, "structural_low": 11.08107, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.00574, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.004399, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.121717, "worst_return": -0.091791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.048102, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.004696, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.111771, "worst_return": -0.093941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.033946, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.052827, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.118182, "worst_return": -0.143653, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 1702002.3, "trend": 11.832942, "fair_value": 11.157758, "relative_strength": -9.651037, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.282925, "energy": 11.348087, "activity_lines": [ 11.716209, 11.686705, 11.682331, 11.735363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.64, "volume": 1377108, "typical_volume": 1663832.85, "trend": 11.821284, "fair_value": 11.167648, "relative_strength": -9.426721, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.069941, "energy": 10.492134, "activity_lines": [ 11.691581, 11.68183, 11.680508, 11.722915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.64, "volume": 1373169, "typical_volume": 1603577.35, "trend": 11.808365, "fair_value": 11.17664, "relative_strength": -10.106659, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.078094, "energy": 19.985958, "activity_lines": [ 11.669467, 11.676909, 11.679847, 11.711219 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.85, "volume": 1885448, "typical_volume": 1597304.2, "trend": 11.79803, "fair_value": 11.18644, "relative_strength": -11.299319, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.182622, "energy": 3.256066, "activity_lines": [ 11.723168, 11.709223, 11.6987, 11.713905 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }