{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be3b722b-1815-447e-97d1-1eb7efd17788", "symbol": "IWQU", "name": "iShares Edge MSCI World Quality Factor UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.521, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.78, "architecture_energy": 70.916, "architecture_maturity": 74.154, "architecture_confidence": 78.299, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.54, "rotation_up": 63.25, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 65.37, "rotation_down": 27.39, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 77.336667, 76.945272, 75.578761, 74.152795 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 78.510002, "trend_reference": 72.536666, "distance_from_trend": 0.082349, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 63.508782, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.236207, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.62536, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.122855, "excess_performance": -0.048037, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082349, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041929, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.236207, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054627, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036254, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008565, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.122855, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.375275, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77992, "relative_activity": 1.38428, "balance": 1.375275, "dry_up": 1.217404, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016274, "annualized_volatility": 0.097787, "from_high_reference": -0.006328, "from_low_reference": 0.237352 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.536666, "fair_value_reference": 63.508782, "structural_low": 66.419998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.011488, "positive_rate": 0.657895, "directional_follow_through": 0.657895, "median_excess_return": -0.002345, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 0.056384, "worst_return": -0.088031, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.026042, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.014464, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.131317, "worst_return": -0.120318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.070155, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.005043, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.157542, "worst_return": -0.085, "sufficient": true }, { 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73.430333, 72.370623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 77.199997, "volume": 55064, "typical_volume": 52221.85, "trend": 71.387666, "fair_value": 62.814359, "relative_strength": -3.629607, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.997531, "energy": 91.876597, "activity_lines": [ 76.609998, 75.78109, 73.922095, 72.766236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 76.919998, "volume": 56661, "typical_volume": 52821.55, "trend": 71.689, "fair_value": 62.987372, "relative_strength": -2.523486, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.350035, "energy": 88.274915, "activity_lines": [ 76.835332, 76.124544, 74.355761, 73.123161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 77.099998, "volume": 56037, "typical_volume": 53042.65, "trend": 71.988666, "fair_value": 63.155385, "relative_strength": -2.057982, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.351588, "energy": 86.422286, "activity_lines": [ 77.010665, 76.418908, 74.777142, 73.472257 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 76.290001, "volume": 83670, "typical_volume": 54395.85, "trend": 72.263, "fair_value": 63.324583, "relative_strength": -3.650524, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.853089, "energy": 64.991528, "activity_lines": [ 76.826666, 76.496544, 75.088999, 73.749763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 78.510002, "volume": 77992, "typical_volume": 56341.2, "trend": 72.536666, "fair_value": 63.508782, "relative_strength": -3.62536, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.779814, "energy": 70.915742, "activity_lines": [ 77.336667, 76.945272, 75.578761, 74.152795 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }