{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be404db3-3939-4761-bbfd-1e47821c8146", "symbol": "EMUX", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy MSCI EMU Min TE UCITS ETF \u2013 EUR", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.212, "architecture_energy": 61.249, "architecture_maturity": 55.236, "architecture_confidence": 77.09, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.12, "rotation_up": 53.83, "upward_expansion": 80.91, "deceleration": 66.7, "rotation_down": 26.75, "downward_expansion": 9.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.702, 20.613563, 20.21399, 19.835084 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.129999, "trend_reference": 19.446533, "distance_from_trend": 0.086569, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.095936, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.312754, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.40584, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.109769, "excess_performance": 0.045129, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086569, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042773, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.312754, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070439, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.044058, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0209, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.109769, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.983768, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 121268, "relative_activity": 0.952219, "balance": 1.983768, "dry_up": 1.209631, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022589, "annualized_volatility": 0.163808, "from_high_reference": -0.005647, "from_low_reference": 0.261041 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.446533, "fair_value_reference": 16.095936, "structural_low": 17.198, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.004101, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.001668, "regime_survival": 0.775, "best_return": 0.070544, "worst_return": -0.097043, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.024737, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.001719, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.093545, "worst_return": -0.045681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.060859, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.009049, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.122833, "worst_return": -0.175251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"energy": 82.758602, "activity_lines": [ 20.578667, 20.310619, 19.761343, 19.485282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.299999, "volume": 282614, "typical_volume": 131448.25, "trend": 19.232067, "fair_value": 15.949667, "relative_strength": 7.154437, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.021069, "energy": 66.808274, "activity_lines": [ 20.500667, 20.358473, 19.853867, 19.558516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.48, "volume": 85615, "typical_volume": 131197.4, "trend": 19.306467, "fair_value": 15.995128, "relative_strength": 6.64132, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.923322, "energy": 55.43336, "activity_lines": [ 20.481667, 20.419927, 19.959857, 19.639028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.59, "volume": 126704, "typical_volume": 130368.35, "trend": 19.374667, "fair_value": 16.043603, "relative_strength": 4.737515, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.484777, "energy": 50.2095, "activity_lines": [ 20.509, 20.475527, 20.066762, 19.721837 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.129999, "volume": 121268, "typical_volume": 127353.05, "trend": 19.446533, "fair_value": 16.095936, "relative_strength": 4.40584, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.21231, "energy": 61.248939, "activity_lines": [ 20.702, 20.613563, 20.21399, 19.835084 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }