{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be40883a-d72c-4f82-bf28-57915d7fb332", "symbol": "KAYA", "name": "Kaya Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -4.878, "architecture_energy": 20.601, "architecture_maturity": 30.974, "architecture_confidence": 45.67, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.53, "rotation_up": 44.16, "upward_expansion": 36.11, "deceleration": 44.15, "rotation_down": 23.32, "downward_expansion": 49.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 268.879331, 260.650362, 257.194903, 264.648343 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 271.0, "trend_reference": 282.316666, "distance_from_trend": -0.040085, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 357.131409, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.241176, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.055706, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.224939, "excess_performance": -0.18123, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040085, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13874, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.241176, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045641, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.190557, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083751, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.224939, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.243081, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92974, "relative_activity": 0.88901, "balance": 2.243081, "dry_up": 1.973722, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065234, "annualized_volatility": 0.404797, "from_high_reference": -0.444558, "from_low_reference": 0.187555 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 282.316666, "fair_value_reference": 357.131409, "structural_low": 228.199997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.054931, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.059394, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.498813, "worst_return": -0.127422, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.010932, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.081867, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.508697, "worst_return": -0.230624, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.19971, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.176133, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.276948, "worst_return": -0.367509, 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146323, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.162883, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.286605, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019176, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.153704, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049101, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010552, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.132378, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.292521, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 365.899994, "volume": 104737, "typical_volume": 144427.65, "trend": 319.605, "fair_value": 341.846796, "relative_strength": 5.210595, "stage": 2, "regime": 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"close": 275.73999, "volume": 70619, "typical_volume": 105885.1, "trend": 286.274999, "fair_value": 357.746473, "relative_strength": -17.794288, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.826753, "energy": 12.600087, "activity_lines": [ 264.452664, 257.484907, 256.000855, 265.633826 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 271.0, "volume": 92974, "typical_volume": 104581.45, "trend": 282.316666, "fair_value": 357.131409, "relative_strength": -19.055706, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.878083, "energy": 20.60094, "activity_lines": [ 268.879331, 260.650362, 257.194903, 264.648343 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }