{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be4bedc7-f648-4e2d-b860-74e10641b9de", "symbol": "9996", "name": "Peijia Medical Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.151, "architecture_energy": 23.571, "architecture_maturity": 84.536, "architecture_confidence": 85.211, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.82, "rotation_up": 37.66, "upward_expansion": 24.8, "deceleration": 41.3, "rotation_down": 23.93, "downward_expansion": 58.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.677, 4.436727, 4.558095, 4.907978 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 4.975, "trend_reference": 5.344833, "distance_from_trend": -0.069195, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.221827, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.047268, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.295622, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.193679, "excess_performance": -0.178388, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069195, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104318, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.047268, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016655, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.142956, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04086, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.193679, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.669433, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3528000, "relative_activity": 0.955676, "balance": 0.669433, "dry_up": 1.308548, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10058, "annualized_volatility": 0.486348, "from_high_reference": -0.424855, "from_low_reference": 0.323138 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.344833, "fair_value_reference": 5.221827, "structural_low": 3.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.451613, "directional_follow_through": 0.483871, "median_excess_return": 0.018244, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.368421, "worst_return": -0.303383, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.076072, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.022653, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.600775, "worst_return": -0.451043, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.036758, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.063563, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.453488, "worst_return": -0.638478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005128, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.198939, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.820449, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068702, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088737, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", 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"trend": 5.697, "fair_value": 5.336154, "relative_strength": -31.138217, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.827072, "energy": 64.248946, "activity_lines": [ 4.076, 4.214364, 4.872429, 5.244882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.22, "volume": 3442502, "typical_volume": 4058542.9, "trend": 5.625667, "fair_value": 5.302308, "relative_strength": -28.332786, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.767329, "energy": 57.360502, "activity_lines": [ 4.131333, 4.173455, 4.766857, 5.149591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.02, "volume": 3008999, "typical_volume": 4069642.85, "trend": 5.555667, "fair_value": 5.274936, "relative_strength": -33.153045, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.069948, "energy": 57.490064, "activity_lines": [ 4.108, 4.118, 4.650476, 5.046 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.3, "volume": 4490000, "typical_volume": 4094392.85, "trend": 5.478667, "fair_value": 5.252244, "relative_strength": -26.813302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.332408, "energy": 46.57979, "activity_lines": [ 4.161333, 4.136909, 4.568762, 4.964989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 5.03, "volume": 8295696, "typical_volume": 3916377.65, "trend": 5.41, "fair_value": 5.235962, "relative_strength": -11.366737, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.414675, "energy": 26.321882, "activity_lines": [ 4.459333, 4.296182, 4.563429, 4.936043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 4.975, "volume": 3528000, "typical_volume": 3691627.65, "trend": 5.344833, "fair_value": 5.221827, "relative_strength": -14.295622, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.150591, "energy": 23.570855, "activity_lines": [ 4.677, 4.436727, 4.558095, 4.907978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }