{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be5062e4-d61c-45d7-9661-550a219f988b", "symbol": "AAB", "name": "Aberdeen International Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -93.589, "architecture_energy": 97.421, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 74.403, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.11, "rotation_up": 8.0, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 79.53, "downward_expansion": 90.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.024, 0.026545, 0.028143, 0.028516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.02, "trend_reference": 0.029, "distance_from_trend": -0.310345, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.033718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.406844, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.473544, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.333333, "excess_performance": -0.453755, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.310345, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022472, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.406844, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.276733, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.414735, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.239842, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.333333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18900, "relative_activity": 0.195359, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.623805, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076923, "annualized_volatility": 0.986796, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.029, "fair_value_reference": 0.033718, "structural_low": 0.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.135135, "directional_follow_through": 0.351351, "median_excess_return": -0.038705, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.176471, "positive_rate": 0.076923, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.129014, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.428571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.333333, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.298622, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.410714, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.559459, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.588235, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.03, "volume": 270100, "typical_volume": 605655.0, "trend": 0.042333, "fair_value": 0.116667, "relative_strength": -36.698367, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.169802, "energy": 86.308071, "activity_lines": [ 0.03, 0.032727, 0.036429, 0.038882 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", 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"date": "2026-06-26", "close": 0.03, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 99295.0, "trend": 0.029667, "fair_value": 0.033974, "relative_strength": -13.681111, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.301885, "energy": 5.831018, "activity_lines": [ 0.03, 0.03, 0.029714, 0.029656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.03, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 97695.0, "trend": 0.029667, "fair_value": 0.03391, "relative_strength": -13.282381, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.697097, "energy": 14.678531, "activity_lines": [ 0.03, 0.03, 0.029762, 0.029677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.03, "volume": 240000, "typical_volume": 107290.0, "trend": 0.029667, "fair_value": 0.033846, "relative_strength": -12.341995, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.611038, "energy": 18.765846, "activity_lines": [ 0.03, 0.03, 0.02981, 0.029699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.03, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 103895.0, "trend": 0.029667, "fair_value": 0.033846, "relative_strength": -11.805853, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.250388, "energy": 28.427956, "activity_lines": [ 0.03, 0.03, 0.029857, 0.02972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.03, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.02, "volume": 222500, "typical_volume": 101120.0, "trend": 0.029333, "fair_value": 0.033782, "relative_strength": -40.204483, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -93.112695, "energy": 97.330699, "activity_lines": [ 0.026667, 0.028182, 0.029, 0.029118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.02, "volume": 18900, "typical_volume": 96745.0, "trend": 0.029, "fair_value": 0.033718, "relative_strength": -41.473544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -93.589283, "energy": 97.420903, "activity_lines": [ 0.024, 0.026545, 0.028143, 0.028516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }