{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be506c25-3c82-4cec-aa05-f622e0e06d05", "symbol": "300210", "name": "Anshan Senyuan Road and Bridge Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.751, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.43, "architecture_energy": 44.022, "architecture_maturity": 10.176, "architecture_confidence": 83.056, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.78, "rotation_up": 13.77, "upward_expansion": 6.48, "deceleration": 45.72, "rotation_down": 60.61, "downward_expansion": 79.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.669333, 8.807091, 9.415714, 9.50028 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.89, "trend_reference": 9.633667, "distance_from_trend": -0.077195, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.465256, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.060776, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.723736, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.097462, "excess_performance": -0.104862, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077195, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001899, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.060776, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196202, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117237, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065259, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.097462, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.425749, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48598890, "relative_activity": 0.680081, "balance": 1.425749, "dry_up": 0.700755, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117764, "annualized_volatility": 0.442252, "from_high_reference": -0.291633, "from_low_reference": 0.148579 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.633667, "fair_value_reference": 9.465256, "structural_low": 7.74, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.053239, "positive_rate": 0.772727, "directional_follow_through": 0.227273, "median_excess_return": 0.044696, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.469925, "worst_return": -0.108037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.095274, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.006034, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.205817, "worst_return": -0.030501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.021253, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.08102, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 3.216495, "worst_return": -0.110092, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078392, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053613, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108734, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.148148, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004357, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.153451, "energy": 37.654108, "activity_lines": [ 8.986667, 9.645455, 9.80681, 9.777484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.5, "volume": 57839569, "typical_volume": 70256450.35, "trend": 9.693667, "fair_value": 9.359679, "relative_strength": -14.450915, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.376164, "energy": 51.498327, "activity_lines": [ 8.768, 9.352909, 9.69119, 9.698559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.27, "volume": 42109188, "typical_volume": 70026548.75, "trend": 9.656, "fair_value": 9.392628, "relative_strength": -16.315471, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.350718, "energy": 61.659879, "activity_lines": [ 8.556667, 9.048, 9.560762, 9.60671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.75, "volume": 51757194, "typical_volume": 70778317.6, "trend": 9.633667, "fair_value": 9.428654, "relative_strength": -9.372007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.170405, "energy": 55.141065, "activity_lines": [ 8.586, 8.884545, 9.481, 9.548258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.89, "volume": 48598890, "typical_volume": 71460406.1, "trend": 9.633667, "fair_value": 9.465256, "relative_strength": -11.723736, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.430183, "energy": 44.021837, "activity_lines": [ 8.669333, 8.807091, 9.415714, 9.50028 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }