{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be509e41-e9a9-45a6-a4fd-07b25e0585bf", "symbol": "EBUL", "name": "WisdomTree Gold - EUR Daily Hedged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.864, "architecture_energy": 53.614, "architecture_maturity": 66.057, "architecture_confidence": 70.397, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.12, "rotation_up": 26.8, "upward_expansion": 21.22, "deceleration": 66.74, "rotation_down": 50.32, "downward_expansion": 73.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.7216, 13.695018, 14.193171, 14.697587 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.372, "trend_reference": 15.3466, "distance_from_trend": -0.063506, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.979805, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.308949, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.85681, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.137335, "excess_performance": -0.308227, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063506, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015545, "read": "Falling" 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13.194, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.007491, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.015813, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.095946, "worst_return": -0.054602, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.038365, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.04154, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.136426, "worst_return": -0.039982, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.08368, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.098183, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.090989, "worst_return": 0.051345, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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77.553617, "activity_lines": [ 13.493867, 13.724509, 14.372343, 14.89603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.35, "volume": 10829, "typical_volume": 13441.65, "trend": 15.377, "fair_value": 10.934208, "relative_strength": -19.618499, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.539075, "energy": 69.320989, "activity_lines": [ 13.430933, 13.601418, 14.225562, 14.762426 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.372, "volume": 17260, "typical_volume": 11997.75, "trend": 15.3466, "fair_value": 10.979805, "relative_strength": -15.85681, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.863625, "energy": 53.614209, "activity_lines": [ 13.7216, 13.695018, 14.193171, 14.697587 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }