{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be5961d7-7c34-4757-96b1-ff1143ba80ca", "symbol": "E0P", "name": "Enphase Energy, Inc.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 79.461, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.362, "architecture_energy": 30.741, "architecture_maturity": 7.241, "architecture_confidence": 51.352, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.88, "rotation_up": 14.45, "upward_expansion": 16.15, "deceleration": 62.41, "rotation_down": 64.42, "downward_expansion": 43.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.529999, 37.131363, 39.553857, 38.731537 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 35.794998, "trend_reference": 37.575167, "distance_from_trend": -0.047376, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 66.844968, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.464507, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.57519, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.125138, "excess_performance": -0.189777, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047376, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132123, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.464507, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135739, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025752, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035021, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.125138, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.973346, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15575, "relative_activity": 0.674469, "balance": 1.973346, "dry_up": 0.876452, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.184276, "annualized_volatility": 0.862648, "from_high_reference": -0.429653, "from_low_reference": 0.597991 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.575167, "fair_value_reference": 66.844968, "structural_low": 25.985001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.499176, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.475117, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.105977, "worst_return": -0.107624, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.013166, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.064577, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.142551, "worst_return": -0.168884, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.29547, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.362984, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.29547, "worst_return": -0.29547, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.640597, "energy": 27.989037, "activity_lines": [ 36.441333, 40.631363, 40.456929, 39.175204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.02, "volume": 28909, "typical_volume": 23372.8, "trend": 37.390833, "fair_value": 67.400769, "relative_strength": -10.219859, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.178088, "energy": 34.799135, "activity_lines": [ 34.545667, 38.330091, 39.809762, 38.834495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.794998, "volume": 15575, "typical_volume": 23092.25, "trend": 37.575167, "fair_value": 66.844968, "relative_strength": -2.57519, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.361867, "energy": 30.741365, "activity_lines": [ 34.529999, 37.131363, 39.553857, 38.731537 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }