{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be5ae51c-ca59-4659-9ff3-ed8893ac7d07", "symbol": "605068", "name": "Mingxin New Material Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.571, "architecture_energy": 38.121, "architecture_maturity": 72.318, "architecture_confidence": 62.277, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.28, "rotation_up": 25.66, "upward_expansion": 17.05, "deceleration": 66.96, "rotation_down": 42.2, "downward_expansion": 67.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.638, 18.170018, 20.4119, 22.094789 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.01, "trend_reference": 23.999593, "distance_from_trend": -0.124568, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.986973, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.051185, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.453878, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.266154, "excess_performance": -0.222951, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.124568, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1175, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.051185, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.318133, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.164539, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188936, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.266154, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.220798, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63508003, "relative_activity": 3.920954, "balance": 0.220798, "dry_up": 2.121614, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15545, "annualized_volatility": 0.812613, "from_high_reference": -0.397476, "from_low_reference": 0.623648 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.999593, "fair_value_reference": 19.986973, "structural_low": 12.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.038789, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.023229, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.274879, "worst_return": -0.170635, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.008326, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030659, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.070268, "worst_return": -0.227405, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.106606, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.07735, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.238472, "worst_return": -0.35277, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.29027, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043663, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.259901, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.139907, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.152996, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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20.136781, "relative_strength": -35.827797, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.289371, "energy": 90.436385, "activity_lines": [ 17.788877, 19.807858, 22.554477, 23.865975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.55, "volume": 17045800, "typical_volume": 11875291.3, "trend": 24.87126, "fair_value": 20.073896, "relative_strength": -39.622901, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.857423, "energy": 90.580242, "activity_lines": [ 16.59791, 18.478262, 21.61725, 23.168474 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.06, "volume": 15445400, "typical_volume": 12172483.9, "trend": 24.37926, "fair_value": 20.008896, "relative_strength": -42.172479, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.134577, "energy": 82.23534, "activity_lines": [ 15.5496, 17.297574, 20.700403, 22.470973 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.690001, "volume": 41456580, "typical_volume": 13559950.85, "trend": 24.151593, "fair_value": 19.997678, "relative_strength": -11.386993, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.186505, "energy": 54.848469, "activity_lines": [ 17.358, 17.746887, 20.572175, 22.297473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.01, "volume": 63508003, "typical_volume": 16197081.0, "trend": 23.999593, "fair_value": 19.986973, "relative_strength": -16.453878, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.571498, "energy": 38.120945, "activity_lines": [ 18.638, 18.170018, 20.4119, 22.094789 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }