{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be5b3054-ffe4-4f6a-b458-908fda339a41", "symbol": "600125", "name": "China Railway Tielong Container Logistics Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.243, "architecture_energy": 32.982, "architecture_maturity": 88.352, "architecture_confidence": 78.658, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.5, "rotation_up": 27.87, "upward_expansion": 23.33, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 28.39, "downward_expansion": 59.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.463333, 5.405956, 5.537107, 5.74306 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.44, "trend_reference": 5.990535, "distance_from_trend": -0.091901, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.850973, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.07024, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.119326, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.173252, "excess_performance": -0.130048, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091901, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052088, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.07024, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086302, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101193, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006627, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.173252, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.432149, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56958015, "relative_activity": 0.7478, "balance": 0.432149, "dry_up": 0.757578, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040565, "annualized_volatility": 0.235864, "from_high_reference": -0.24234, "from_low_reference": 0.054264 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.990535, "fair_value_reference": 5.850973, "structural_low": 5.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.027027, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": 0.02327, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.113597, "worst_return": -0.059262, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.029485, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -1.2e-05, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.171171, "worst_return": -0.015707, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.100946, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.038234, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.132681, "worst_return": -0.013746, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019366, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031304, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00349, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.049735, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.127022, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", 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-72.603974, "energy": 88.398387, "activity_lines": [ 5.305172, 5.45765, 5.766822, 5.95448 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.28, "volume": 41347340, "typical_volume": 92517838.85, "trend": 6.115535, "fair_value": 5.859132, "relative_strength": -14.774189, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.958604, "energy": 87.329004, "activity_lines": [ 5.278667, 5.398841, 5.696746, 5.898144 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.44, "volume": 62473264, "typical_volume": 92225723.95, "trend": 6.089868, "fair_value": 5.856885, "relative_strength": -6.586534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.791192, "energy": 83.394444, "activity_lines": [ 5.322, 5.383315, 5.646098, 5.854561 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.41, "volume": 56614417, "typical_volume": 83748075.7, "trend": 6.054535, "fair_value": 5.854445, "relative_strength": -8.109032, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.197248, "energy": 59.132971, "activity_lines": [ 5.356667, 5.372182, 5.59745, 5.810699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.59, "volume": 54765308, "typical_volume": 79482717.65, "trend": 6.023868, "fair_value": 5.853405, "relative_strength": -5.300778, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.344942, "energy": 43.030351, "activity_lines": [ 5.449333, 5.40094, 5.571755, 5.780729 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.44, "volume": 56958015, "typical_volume": 76167417.75, "trend": 5.990535, "fair_value": 5.850973, "relative_strength": -10.119326, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.243188, "energy": 32.981595, "activity_lines": [ 5.463333, 5.405956, 5.537107, 5.74306 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }