{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be5e86b1-002f-4822-bcef-7313ab003981", "symbol": "688089", "name": "Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -85.817, "architecture_energy": 93.739, "architecture_maturity": 92.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.241, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 15.1, "upward_expansion": 21.62, "deceleration": 37.15, "rotation_down": 81.06, "downward_expansion": 99.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.616, 9.660364, 11.52881, 13.245312 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 7.73, "trend_reference": 15.433, "distance_from_trend": -0.499125, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.17771, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.596928, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -60.389067, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.594226, "excess_performance": -0.551022, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.499125, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.219662, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.596928, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.398329, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.603891, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231281, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.594226, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.160319, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21577929, "relative_activity": 1.537234, "balance": 0.160319, "dry_up": 1.571747, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.159319, "annualized_volatility": 0.593416, "from_high_reference": -0.751686, "from_low_reference": 0.118669 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.433, "fair_value_reference": 19.17771, "structural_low": 6.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.024079, "positive_rate": 0.407407, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": -0.021719, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.204043, "worst_return": -0.201545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.033609, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.002419, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.426626, "worst_return": -0.349435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.055816, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.0108, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.310136, "worst_return": -0.449565, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 11.083333, 11.847818, 13.754952, 15.26329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.61, "volume": 14248131, "typical_volume": 12436637.55, "trend": 16.953667, "fair_value": 19.416472, "relative_strength": -46.409267, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.926131, "energy": 68.198609, "activity_lines": [ 10.858, 11.467091, 13.293095, 14.827699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.94, "volume": 15846998, "typical_volume": 12630481.2, "trend": 16.502, "fair_value": 19.348459, "relative_strength": -49.611414, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.021581, "energy": 82.622011, "activity_lines": [ 10.514667, 11.062364, 12.811476, 14.375204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.21, "volume": 36576431, "typical_volume": 13650996.55, "trend": 15.951333, "fair_value": 19.265502, "relative_strength": -62.837286, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -96.418816, "energy": 95.288542, "activity_lines": [ 9.356667, 10.250182, 12.11519, 13.77572 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.73, "volume": 21577929, "typical_volume": 14036851.15, "trend": 15.433, "fair_value": 19.17771, "relative_strength": -60.389067, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.817118, "energy": 93.738627, "activity_lines": [ 8.616, 9.660364, 11.52881, 13.245312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }