{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "be63a6f4-b27b-477c-9e12-4eaf7f943464",
    "symbol": "FMY",
    "name": "First Trust Mortgage Income Fund",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 59.354,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -49.182,
    "architecture_energy": 35.911,
    "architecture_maturity": 34.883,
    "architecture_confidence": 81.572,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 39.89,
        "rotation_up": 14.26,
        "upward_expansion": 6.81,
        "deceleration": 42.63,
        "rotation_down": 59.26,
        "downward_expansion": 77.81
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        11.541141,
        11.604427,
        11.619698,
        11.635299
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 11.55,
    "trend_reference": 11.67885,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.011033,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 10.872756,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.062288,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -11.844703,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.021035,
    "excess_performance": -0.14666,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.011033,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.000519,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.062288,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.029487,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.118447,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.008897,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.021035,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.630748,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 9832,
      "relative_activity": 0.570026,
      "balance": 1.630748,
      "dry_up": 0.807932,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.020636,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.117778,
      "from_high_reference": -0.04324,
      "from_low_reference": 0.030131
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 11.67885,
      "fair_value_reference": 10.872756,
      "structural_low": 11.212167,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 20,
        "median_return": -0.001339,
        "positive_rate": 0.45,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.45,
        "median_excess_return": -7.9e-05,
        "regime_survival": 0.55,
        "best_return": 0.043163,
        "worst_return": -0.091784,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.00128,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.002403,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.113143,
        "worst_return": -0.038069,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.011187,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": -0.01987,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.090664,
        "worst_return": -0.110615,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.061397,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.101621,
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        "worst_return": -0.139877,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-03-22",
        "end": "2024-04-26",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2024-05-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.007269,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "end": "2025-02-21",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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      {
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 14318,
        "typical_volume": 26875.3,
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        "fair_value": 10.827494,
        "relative_strength": -9.088918,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -20.925474,
        "energy": 15.718938,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 11.445309,
        "volume": 11211,
        "typical_volume": 25620.2,
        "trend": 11.696982,
        "fair_value": 10.842752,
        "relative_strength": -9.296106,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -54.786254,
        "energy": 24.044171,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 11.561949,
        "volume": 20381,
        "typical_volume": 18913.95,
        "trend": 11.691521,
        "fair_value": 10.857956,
        "relative_strength": -9.01963,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -46.528214,
        "energy": 28.147752,
        "activity_lines": [
          11.565065,
          11.617815,
          11.628186,
          11.64443
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 11.55,
        "volume": 9832,
        "typical_volume": 17248.35,
        "trend": 11.67885,
        "fair_value": 10.872756,
        "relative_strength": -11.844703,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -49.181585,
        "energy": 35.910681,
        "activity_lines": [
          11.541141,
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}