{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be6725bc-8164-4349-aaf6-0ddb2dd76785", "symbol": "DGCO34", "name": "Dollar General Corporation", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 60.615, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 12.285, "architecture_energy": 33.832, "architecture_maturity": 7.0, "architecture_confidence": 57.213, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.28, "rotation_up": 49.1, "upward_expansion": 43.88, "deceleration": 23.35, "rotation_down": 14.95, "downward_expansion": 47.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.566667, 26.053419, 25.047895, 25.576034 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.26, "trend_reference": 26.923443, "distance_from_trend": 0.012501, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.756548, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.101123, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.174486, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.148455, "excess_performance": -0.091406, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012501, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028448, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.101123, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.182628, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.001745, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.244538, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.148455, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.412449, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 184, "relative_activity": 0.052674, "balance": 0.412449, "dry_up": 0.14564, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063551, "annualized_volatility": 0.409246, "from_high_reference": -0.208575, "from_low_reference": 0.315637 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.923443, "fair_value_reference": 24.756548, "structural_low": 20.719999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.043846, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.037771, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.164878, "worst_return": -0.321367, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.034008, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.038046, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.282064, "worst_return": -0.346196, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.08465, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.067424, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.163628, "worst_return": -0.339981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.124574, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041002, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.116088, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039974, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"relative_strength": -2.256635, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.79365, "energy": 24.000297, "activity_lines": [ 26.074035, 25.03311, 24.622205, 25.741559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.940001, "volume": 82, "typical_volume": 3799.5, "trend": 27.210344, "fair_value": 24.827415, "relative_strength": -9.929025, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.788111, "energy": 17.95335, "activity_lines": [ 25.844026, 25.177334, 24.601581, 25.581725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.940001, "volume": 103, "typical_volume": 3524.1, "trend": 27.077869, "fair_value": 24.790863, "relative_strength": -4.451762, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.039161, "energy": 20.360289, "activity_lines": [ 26.190859, 25.632104, 24.804494, 25.564283 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.26, "volume": 184, "typical_volume": 3493.2, "trend": 26.923443, "fair_value": 24.756548, "relative_strength": 0.174486, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 12.285002, "energy": 33.831877, "activity_lines": [ 26.566667, 26.053419, 25.047895, 25.576034 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }