{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be6b1ae3-ed8f-4a7f-89c8-df6f01ebc6cb", "symbol": "ADBE34", "name": "Adobe Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 10.039, "architecture_energy": 20.483, "architecture_maturity": 34.417, "architecture_confidence": 60.25, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.83, "rotation_up": 43.15, "upward_expansion": 33.01, "deceleration": 47.09, "rotation_down": 14.37, "downward_expansion": 41.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.165333, 23.951091, 23.889286, 24.408215 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.969999, "trend_reference": 25.556667, "distance_from_trend": 0.055302, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.48, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.406992, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.744439, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.026354, "excess_performance": 0.030695, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055302, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147448, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.406992, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06635, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.167444, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.248321, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.026354, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.31027, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110473, "relative_activity": 0.952985, "balance": 1.31027, "dry_up": 1.478364, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090671, "annualized_volatility": 0.472229, "from_high_reference": -0.341874, "from_low_reference": 0.384497 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.556667, "fair_value_reference": 45.48, "structural_low": 19.48, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.066031, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.085838, "regime_survival": 0.181818, "best_return": 0.097802, "worst_return": -0.220109, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.138264, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.129287, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.270579, "worst_return": -0.351529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.078079, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.201211, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.318661, "worst_return": 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"active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0619, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.109383, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044701, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.108665, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.071899, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", 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93073, "typical_volume": 147351.75, "trend": 26.752, "fair_value": 45.966539, "relative_strength": -28.577485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.082623, "energy": 31.587416, "activity_lines": [ 22.97, 22.926, 23.609715, 24.62714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.1, "volume": 150069, "typical_volume": 125252.8, "trend": 26.203, "fair_value": 45.79391, "relative_strength": -31.181892, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.059914, "energy": 20.238538, "activity_lines": [ 23.245334, 22.879637, 23.485905, 24.391527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.34, "volume": 331891, "typical_volume": 123453.6, "trend": 25.848334, "fair_value": 45.626923, "relative_strength": -25.077487, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.016063, "energy": 16.095509, "activity_lines": [ 24.080667, 23.275273, 23.606429, 24.33585 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.969999, "volume": 110473, "typical_volume": 115923.1, "trend": 25.556667, "fair_value": 45.48, "relative_strength": -16.744439, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 10.038794, "energy": 20.483491, "activity_lines": [ 25.165333, 23.951091, 23.889286, 24.408215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }