{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "be6b1bca-6d11-4609-ac8f-94fff0456b46",
    "symbol": "CHINU",
    "name": "BNP Paribas Easy MSCI China Min",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 86.844,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -6.697,
    "architecture_energy": 20.025,
    "architecture_maturity": 100.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 48.226,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 50.44,
        "rotation_up": 42.32,
        "upward_expansion": 23.47,
        "deceleration": 41.31,
        "rotation_down": 16.36,
        "downward_expansion": 55.14
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        6.732664,
        6.820276
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 6.9798,
    "trend_reference": 6.9888,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.001288,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 6.103791,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.143519,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -10.161998,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.073929,
    "excess_performance": -0.12724,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.001288,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.042349,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.143519,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.048887,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.10162,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.077333,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.073929,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.668111,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 50307,
      "relative_activity": 1.266021,
      "balance": 0.668111,
      "dry_up": 1.366188,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.030058,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.176185,
      "from_high_reference": -0.148441,
      "from_low_reference": 0.135001
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 6.9888,
      "fair_value_reference": 6.103791,
      "structural_low": 6.1496,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 15,
        "median_return": -0.016242,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.014074,
        "regime_survival": 0.8,
        "best_return": 0.281102,
        "worst_return": -0.082541,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
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        "positive_rate": 0.2,
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        "median_excess_return": -0.065812,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.194121,
        "worst_return": -0.105957,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.004564,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.007763,
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        "worst_return": -0.167527,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
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        "worst_return": -0.171326,
        "sufficient": false
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "relative_strength": -11.974957,
        "stage": 4,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 32972.9,
        "trend": 7.062787,
        "fair_value": 6.090594,
        "relative_strength": -12.276513,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -64.345871,
        "energy": 66.087228,
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          6.494993,
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          6.726705,
          6.859999
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 6.6372,
        "volume": 37169,
        "typical_volume": 33655.75,
        "trend": 7.03525,
        "fair_value": 6.093251,
        "relative_strength": -11.475279,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -58.561518,
        "energy": 45.698795,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.551487,
          6.556547,
          6.708864,
          6.832542
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 6.876,
        "volume": 102359,
        "typical_volume": 38230.7,
        "trend": 7.01067,
        "fair_value": 6.095944,
        "relative_strength": -9.57556,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -30.18748,
        "energy": 21.972692,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.680553,
          6.606375,
          6.715346,
          6.822267
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 6.9798,
        "volume": 50307,
        "typical_volume": 39736.3,
        "trend": 6.9888,
        "fair_value": 6.103791,
        "relative_strength": -10.161998,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -6.696918,
        "energy": 20.024991,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.803647,
          6.673933,
          6.732664,
          6.820276
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}