{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be6fb5fe-2e00-4da7-a782-9ee6f88996af", "symbol": "002753", "name": "Shanxi Yongdong Chemistry Industry Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.041, "architecture_energy": 44.698, "architecture_maturity": 69.229, "architecture_confidence": 86.484, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.08, "rotation_up": 27.04, "upward_expansion": 7.15, "deceleration": 60.45, "rotation_down": 44.86, "downward_expansion": 78.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.996, 6.009345, 6.309953, 6.61559 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.13, "trend_reference": 6.974764, "distance_from_trend": -0.121117, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.642597, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.077168, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.734492, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.212082, "excess_performance": -0.219482, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.121117, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062527, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.077168, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.171324, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.167345, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013067, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.212082, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.547161, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16777945, "relative_activity": 0.644754, "balance": 0.547161, "dry_up": 0.667575, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077082, "annualized_volatility": 0.357085, "from_high_reference": -0.309685, "from_low_reference": 0.094643 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.974764, "fair_value_reference": 6.642597, "structural_low": 5.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.005319, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.016138, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.174834, "worst_return": -0.159763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.036052, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.001056, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.582996, "worst_return": -0.207974, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.038983, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.054011, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.253774, "worst_return": -0.22027, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.780118, "energy": 58.806683, "activity_lines": [ 5.899333, 6.042777, 6.438219, 6.73971 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.0, "volume": 14811537, "typical_volume": 27954137.15, "trend": 7.008097, "fair_value": 6.648044, "relative_strength": -14.859884, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.91689, "energy": 52.074049, "activity_lines": [ 5.936, 6.00587, 6.362681, 6.672241 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.13, "volume": 16777945, "typical_volume": 26022262.3, "trend": 6.974764, "fair_value": 6.642597, "relative_strength": -16.734492, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.040566, "energy": 44.698478, "activity_lines": [ 5.996, 6.009345, 6.309953, 6.61559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }