{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be774fd6-4111-466b-b63d-82d7518b9fd0", "symbol": "6443", "name": "TSEC Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.271, "architecture_energy": 80.221, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.394, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.79, "rotation_up": 9.92, "upward_expansion": 19.42, "deceleration": 37.35, "rotation_down": 76.57, "downward_expansion": 95.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.56, 28.975455, 32.87381, 35.217312 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 27.200001, "trend_reference": 37.651666, "distance_from_trend": -0.277588, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.292754, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.075407, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.336778, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.307888, "excess_performance": -0.74926, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.277588, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119364, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.075407, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.437113, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.293368, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.41662, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.307888, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.328314, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19332692, "relative_activity": 0.266618, "balance": 1.328314, "dry_up": 0.378424, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.171097, "annualized_volatility": 0.625188, "from_high_reference": -0.518584, "from_low_reference": 1.276151 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.651666, "fair_value_reference": 25.292754, "structural_low": 22.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.001475, "positive_rate": 0.516129, "directional_follow_through": 0.451613, "median_excess_return": -0.007908, "regime_survival": 0.709677, "best_return": 0.436567, "worst_return": -0.13285, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.014286, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.070017, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.434921, "worst_return": -0.1875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.12776, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.147719, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 1.857143, "worst_return": -0.216667, "sufficient": true }, { 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"rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.801662, "energy": 78.329675, "activity_lines": [ 30.653333, 33.785455, 36.142143, 37.587957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.75, "volume": 33736777, "typical_volume": 106705226.6, "trend": 37.858333, "fair_value": 25.343595, "relative_strength": -34.758201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.862891, "energy": 86.390428, "activity_lines": [ 27.99, 31.55, 34.752381, 36.666236 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.0, "volume": 26868175, "typical_volume": 85145658.75, "trend": 37.8, "fair_value": 25.311649, "relative_strength": -30.175573, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.31975, "energy": 82.445286, "activity_lines": [ 26.793333, 30.02, 33.704762, 35.901183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 27.200001, "volume": 19332692, "typical_volume": 72510802.35, "trend": 37.651666, "fair_value": 25.292754, "relative_strength": -29.336778, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.271386, "energy": 80.221354, "activity_lines": [ 26.56, 28.975455, 32.87381, 35.217312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }