{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be7a72de-ed82-4be0-b4c6-adc38328aa71", "symbol": "TURTLE", "name": "Super Turtle Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 59.494, "architecture_energy": 58.917, "architecture_maturity": 26.771, "architecture_confidence": 66.543, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.95, "rotation_up": 73.5, "upward_expansion": 55.81, "deceleration": 34.87, "rotation_down": 17.81, "downward_expansion": 16.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.422667, 3.328364, 3.107429, 3.06572 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.64, "trend_reference": 3.072667, "distance_from_trend": 0.184639, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.681154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.359285, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.377485, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.28169, "excess_performance": 0.089365, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.184639, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034966, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.359285, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.168029, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153775, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.339748, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.28169, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.408602, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14800, "relative_activity": 3.220892, "balance": 1.408602, "dry_up": 0.973885, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053677, "annualized_volatility": 0.488583, "from_high_reference": -0.435659, "from_low_reference": 0.516667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.072667, "fair_value_reference": 5.681154, "structural_low": 2.4, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.002597, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.086957, "worst_return": -0.157895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.130733, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.028986, "worst_return": -0.092105, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.014493, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.089379, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.042857, "worst_return": -0.078947, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.188406, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.207547, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.203125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073529, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044444, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047393, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116564, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.1, "volume": 35000, "typical_volume": 133980.0, "trend": 5.540333, "fair_value": 4.241532, "relative_strength": -14.795152, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.635136, "energy": 53.838868, "activity_lines": [ 3.128, 2.954545, 2.896476, 2.96714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.36, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 4620.0, "trend": 3.093333, "fair_value": 5.724423, "relative_strength": -28.809089, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.119775, "energy": 74.360817, "activity_lines": [ 3.24, 3.045091, 2.934762, 2.984473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.38, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 4090.0, "trend": 3.094, "fair_value": 5.715321, "relative_strength": -27.558098, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.687317, "energy": 76.089541, "activity_lines": [ 3.314667, 3.130545, 2.974286, 3.002968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.3, "volume": 1800, "typical_volume": 4150.0, "trend": 3.082, "fair_value": 5.705064, "relative_strength": -27.8488, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.738526, "energy": 64.487189, "activity_lines": [ 3.328, 3.190182, 3.007524, 3.016258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.28, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 3995.0, "trend": 3.071333, "fair_value": 5.691795, "relative_strength": -25.774812, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.721854, "energy": 53.937818, "activity_lines": [ 3.314667, 3.232727, 3.040571, 3.029032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.64, "volume": 14800, "typical_volume": 4595.0, "trend": 3.072667, "fair_value": 5.681154, "relative_strength": -15.377485, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 59.494412, "energy": 58.916742, "activity_lines": [ 3.422667, 3.328364, 3.107429, 3.06572 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }