{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be889c80-875e-4544-a4ae-68ebcdf44419", "symbol": "WAC", "name": "Wacker Neuson SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 66.398, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.939, "architecture_energy": 91.481, "architecture_maturity": 18.612, "architecture_confidence": 63.321, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.27, "rotation_up": 83.9, "upward_expansion": 97.12, "deceleration": 41.83, "rotation_down": 8.07, "downward_expansion": 21.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.738, 20.789091, 19.89355, 19.525102 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 22.4, "trend_reference": 19.349532, "distance_from_trend": 0.157651, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.607032, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.272219, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.26197, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.069409, "excess_performance": -0.104838, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.157651, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020337, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.272219, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.219544, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10262, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.152755, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.069409, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 3.902813, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046995, "annualized_volatility": 0.366159, "from_high_reference": -0.105398, "from_low_reference": 0.391127 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.349532, "fair_value_reference": 17.607032, "structural_low": 16.102049, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.039067, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.040757, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.14591, "worst_return": -0.215385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.154114, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.138792, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.174986, "worst_return": -0.252485, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.227926, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.187263, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.263735, "worst_return": -0.244496, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -23.821774, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.951364, "energy": 15.793712, "activity_lines": [ 19.161334, 18.957994, 18.763489, 18.940841 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.85, "volume": 1136, "typical_volume": 78.25, "trend": 19.515156, "fair_value": 17.567992, "relative_strength": -14.607746, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.004927, "energy": 45.195198, "activity_lines": [ 19.772667, 19.331637, 18.975452, 19.020851 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.950001, "volume": 390, "typical_volume": 97.75, "trend": 19.46676, "fair_value": 17.57612, "relative_strength": -10.691239, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 57.882779, "energy": 71.220802, "activity_lines": [ 20.568667, 19.862728, 19.288279, 19.177937 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.85, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 97.75, "trend": 19.402189, "fair_value": 17.583043, "relative_strength": -10.433007, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.460458, "energy": 74.546214, "activity_lines": [ 21.173334, 20.309273, 19.573274, 19.331695 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 97.75, "trend": 19.349532, "fair_value": 17.607032, "relative_strength": -10.26197, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.938796, "energy": 91.481062, "activity_lines": [ 21.738, 20.789091, 19.89355, 19.525102 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }