{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be935014-b1ef-4119-b5f6-225d864b523a", "symbol": "AHYB", "name": "AMERICAN CENTURY ETF TRUST SELECT HIGH YIELD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -10.121, "architecture_energy": 19.652, "architecture_maturity": 10.18, "architecture_confidence": 43.0, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.15, "rotation_up": 19.14, "upward_expansion": 18.48, "deceleration": 55.5, "rotation_down": 50.85, "downward_expansion": 41.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.749577, 45.811989, 45.883466, 45.836391 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 45.9, "trend_reference": 45.79714, "distance_from_trend": 0.002246, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.323136, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.084513, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.059657, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.001262, "excess_performance": -0.124363, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002246, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004426, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.084513, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024083, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100597, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012688, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001262, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.349184, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10000, "relative_activity": 0.813021, "balance": 1.349184, "dry_up": 0.773529, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006618, "annualized_volatility": 0.038026, "from_high_reference": -0.008639, "from_low_reference": 0.040627 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.79714, "fair_value_reference": 42.323136, "structural_low": 44.869372, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.001796, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.022458, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.001796, "worst_return": 0.001796, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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45.750063, "fair_value": 42.050747, "relative_strength": -7.907901, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.948283, "energy": 20.275136, "activity_lines": [ 45.967093, 45.989439, 45.905162, 45.842701 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 45.817727, "volume": 8444, "typical_volume": 13926.55, "trend": 45.767667, "fair_value": 42.106007, "relative_strength": -9.055829, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.531521, "energy": 13.870481, "activity_lines": [ 45.921431, 45.955965, 45.906407, 45.847066 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.865872, "volume": 11469, "typical_volume": 13918.95, "trend": 45.784278, "fair_value": 42.160712, "relative_strength": -7.293107, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.640569, "energy": 15.691028, "activity_lines": [ 45.891006, 45.935684, 45.913068, 45.853402 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.598884, "volume": 8496, "typical_volume": 13107.0, "trend": 45.787696, "fair_value": 42.213745, "relative_strength": -7.071499, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.464647, "energy": 19.310379, "activity_lines": [ 45.781584, 45.870863, 45.89436, 45.841441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.599382, "volume": 8092, "typical_volume": 12712.05, "trend": 45.789963, "fair_value": 42.267611, "relative_strength": -7.796701, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.629791, "energy": 31.319608, "activity_lines": [ 45.702118, 45.810284, 45.875602, 45.829292 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.9, "volume": 10000, "typical_volume": 12299.8, "trend": 45.79714, "fair_value": 42.323136, "relative_strength": -10.059657, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.121172, "energy": 19.651897, "activity_lines": [ 45.749577, 45.811989, 45.883466, 45.836391 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }