{ "ticker": { "uuid": "be9fd40e-bda2-43d5-ba8c-de80e88e9421", "symbol": "AMEL", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi MSCI Em Latin America UCITS ETF-C EUR", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 54.789, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.903, "architecture_energy": 26.737, "architecture_maturity": 9.799, "architecture_confidence": 63.578, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.7, "rotation_up": 56.65, "upward_expansion": 66.73, "deceleration": 54.82, "rotation_down": 8.88, "downward_expansion": 7.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.122, 20.949528, 20.919329, 20.944084 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.030001, "trend_reference": 20.913467, "distance_from_trend": 0.005572, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.448859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.278508, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.991017, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.001667, "excess_performance": -0.062973, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005572, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046462, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.278508, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072952, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.00991, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188313, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001667, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.889709, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 123461, "relative_activity": 0.64207, "balance": 0.889709, "dry_up": 1.131154, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030466, "annualized_volatility": 0.190859, "from_high_reference": -0.070497, "from_low_reference": 0.395673 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.913467, "fair_value_reference": 16.448859, "structural_low": 19.236, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.022072, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.018868, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.158041, "worst_return": -0.097085, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.047925, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.005643, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.270159, "worst_return": -0.064374, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.045157, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.059586, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.134468, "worst_return": -0.086836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"fair_value": 16.304635, "relative_strength": 7.793848, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.508352, "energy": 14.261605, "activity_lines": [ 20.733334, 20.619, 20.853548, 20.836409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.764999, "volume": 261448, "typical_volume": 211049.5, "trend": 20.6284, "fair_value": 16.338628, "relative_strength": 7.302923, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.307343, "energy": 12.781553, "activity_lines": [ 20.760667, 20.638655, 20.837814, 20.85146 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.27, "volume": 271276, "typical_volume": 207733.55, "trend": 20.739467, "fair_value": 16.373513, "relative_strength": 8.091758, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.145792, "energy": 22.723999, "activity_lines": [ 20.948667, 20.765491, 20.8742, 20.892854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.35, "volume": 213835, "typical_volume": 199175.6, "trend": 20.846467, "fair_value": 16.411564, "relative_strength": 5.723277, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.824561, "energy": 28.303356, "activity_lines": [ 21.110667, 20.892327, 20.914586, 20.932243 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.030001, "volume": 123461, "typical_volume": 192285.95, "trend": 20.913467, "fair_value": 16.448859, "relative_strength": 0.991017, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.903034, "energy": 26.737267, "activity_lines": [ 21.122, 20.949528, 20.919329, 20.944084 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }