{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bea53388-558d-4977-8995-928d5f437ee8", "symbol": "FACT", "name": "FACT II Acquisition Corp. Class A Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 86.749, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.09, "architecture_energy": 42.021, "architecture_maturity": 29.808, "architecture_confidence": 57.759, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.91, "rotation_up": 44.83, "upward_expansion": 76.65, "deceleration": 67.18, "rotation_down": 26.72, "downward_expansion": 5.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.655333, 10.651455, 10.638342, 10.609529 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.67, "trend_reference": 10.57003, "distance_from_trend": 0.009458, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.320441, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.033871, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.044248, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.017159, "excess_performance": -0.170294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009458, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008556, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.033871, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003832, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.110442, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044397, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017159, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 11.782649, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2462, "relative_activity": 0.005989, "balance": 11.782649, "dry_up": 0.849067, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004142, "annualized_volatility": 0.015983, "from_high_reference": -0.007442, "from_low_reference": 0.039961 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.57003, "fair_value_reference": 10.320441, "structural_low": 10.47, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003282, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003763, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 9.88, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 9.88, "volume": 501638, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": 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-11.730817, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.728066, "energy": 49.120628, "activity_lines": [ 10.653333, 10.649455, 10.609792, 10.577302 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.63, "volume": 28791, "typical_volume": 356480.1, "trend": 10.54003, "fair_value": 10.304243, "relative_strength": -12.904871, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.627221, "energy": 38.764166, "activity_lines": [ 10.643667, 10.648727, 10.615169, 10.583644 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.63, "volume": 15504, "typical_volume": 354989.9, "trend": 10.547697, "fair_value": 10.308167, "relative_strength": -8.80374, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.133745, "energy": 31.647778, "activity_lines": [ 10.637333, 10.646727, 10.619879, 10.589448 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.65, "volume": 1060184, "typical_volume": 402259.0, "trend": 10.556363, "fair_value": 10.312237, "relative_strength": -6.868421, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.158985, "energy": 28.770574, "activity_lines": [ 10.639, 10.647273, 10.625779, 10.596049 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.66, "volume": 317978, "typical_volume": 414245.05, "trend": 10.564697, "fair_value": 10.316328, "relative_strength": -6.952954, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.191924, "energy": 33.219491, "activity_lines": [ 10.645333, 10.648455, 10.632013, 10.602735 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.67, "volume": 2462, "typical_volume": 411077.3, "trend": 10.57003, "fair_value": 10.320441, "relative_strength": -11.044248, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.089727, "energy": 42.021351, "activity_lines": [ 10.655333, 10.651455, 10.638342, 10.609529 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }