{ "ticker": { "uuid": "beb0ce08-a4c1-41b1-b963-f1dca216b6e9", "symbol": "RDDT", "name": "REDDIT INC", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.018, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.922, "architecture_energy": 20.839, "architecture_maturity": 30.23, "architecture_confidence": 77.525, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.4, "rotation_up": 26.88, "upward_expansion": 53.73, "deceleration": 85.24, "rotation_down": 39.19, "downward_expansion": 26.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 2831.587988, 2944.525812, 2890.45038, 2810.648085 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2780.0, "trend_reference": 2801.482332, "distance_from_trend": -0.007668, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2910.925716, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.044977, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.553485, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.165125, "excess_performance": 0.219792, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007668, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108766, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.044977, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037472, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.195535, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074691, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.165125, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.154262, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 882, "relative_activity": 0.648148, "balance": 4.154262, "dry_up": 0.569518, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117645, "annualized_volatility": 0.664084, "from_high_reference": -0.463735, "from_low_reference": 0.260771 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2801.482332, "fair_value_reference": 2910.925716, "structural_low": 2205.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.079218, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.085246, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.102861, "worst_return": -0.261298, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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2846.558845 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2441.409912, "volume": 1693, "typical_volume": 1379.5, "trend": 2857.49034, "fair_value": 2912.184617, "relative_strength": -30.074291, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.966813, "energy": 11.345355, "activity_lines": [ 2929.085986, 2983.71345, 2890.259809, 2815.647462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2780.0, "volume": 882, "typical_volume": 1360.8, "trend": 2801.482332, "fair_value": 2910.925716, "relative_strength": -19.553485, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.92194, "energy": 20.839067, "activity_lines": [ 2831.587988, 2944.525812, 2890.45038, 2810.648085 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }