{ "ticker": { "uuid": "beb957aa-365f-4156-886c-8fcca6138679", "symbol": "227830", "name": "Hanwha Plus KOSPI Securities ETF Investment Trust - Equity", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 55.875, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -12.113, "architecture_energy": 30.564, "architecture_maturity": 59.384, "architecture_confidence": 93.737, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.67, "rotation_up": 14.06, "upward_expansion": 43.34, "deceleration": 87.57, "rotation_down": 54.13, "downward_expansion": 39.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 68355.175, 74250.654119, 76471.163542, 73233.685316 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 64810.0, "trend_reference": 68109.030339, "distance_from_trend": -0.048437, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36180.308556, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.791306, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.460385, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.239306, "excess_performance": 0.009477, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048437, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.216123, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.791306, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.65685, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004604, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002521, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.239306, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.824672, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3412, "relative_activity": 0.656735, "balance": 0.824672, "dry_up": 1.017198, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141272, "annualized_volatility": 0.467016, "from_high_reference": -0.338822, "from_low_reference": 1.054922 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68109.030339, "fair_value_reference": 36180.308556, "structural_low": 52046.710182, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.050133, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.002571, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.281949, "worst_return": -0.006842, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.072475, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.005077, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.299076, "worst_return": -0.047605, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.044809, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007986, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.091813, "worst_return": -0.002196, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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82080.262216, 78084.970889, 73065.448984 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 69122.75, "volume": 3756, "typical_volume": 5626.6, "trend": 66709.109375, "fair_value": 35652.79978, "relative_strength": 0.288816, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.172962, "energy": 23.21704, "activity_lines": [ 74387.81875, 79572.941335, 77753.013002, 73278.803621 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 68720.0, "volume": 6385, "typical_volume": 5401.8, "trend": 67520.224349, "fair_value": 35928.705754, "relative_strength": 1.112176, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.606497, "energy": 22.209421, "activity_lines": [ 71404.292188, 77152.070455, 77327.602958, 73408.5385 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 64810.0, "volume": 3412, "typical_volume": 5195.4, "trend": 68109.030339, "fair_value": 36180.308556, "relative_strength": 0.460385, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -12.112816, "energy": 30.563753, "activity_lines": [ 68355.175, 74250.654119, 76471.163542, 73233.685316 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }