{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bebdb7e0-9d48-44cd-af75-c25a8524155b", "symbol": "QUS", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR MSCI USA STRATEGICFACTORS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.733, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 90.668, "architecture_energy": 83.576, "architecture_maturity": 34.068, "architecture_confidence": 78.102, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.85, "rotation_up": 73.89, "upward_expansion": 92.98, "deceleration": 46.13, "rotation_down": 18.18, "downward_expansion": 17.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 190.40166, 188.757529, 186.240295, 183.629333 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 194.51, "trend_reference": 180.797599, "distance_from_trend": 0.075844, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 153.916267, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.263739, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.419818, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.087519, "excess_performance": -0.038105, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.075844, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028606, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.263739, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038495, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014198, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031491, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.087519, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.781735, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59169, "relative_activity": 0.451662, "balance": 2.781735, "dry_up": 0.677197, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015637, "annualized_volatility": 0.098348, "from_high_reference": -0.000411, "from_low_reference": 0.208291 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 180.797599, "fair_value_reference": 153.916267, "structural_low": 166.936446, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.013977, "positive_rate": 0.731707, "directional_follow_through": 0.731707, "median_excess_return": 0.000547, "regime_survival": 0.804878, "best_return": 0.057953, "worst_return": -0.065615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.026469, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.00463, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.112619, "worst_return": -0.081364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.081395, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.014079, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.11148, "worst_return": -0.12901, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 188.35052, 187.300393, 185.039501, 182.70551 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 194.51, "volume": 59169, "typical_volume": 131002.9, "trend": 180.797599, "fair_value": 153.916267, "relative_strength": -1.419818, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.667953, "energy": 83.5756, "activity_lines": [ 190.40166, 188.757529, 186.240295, 183.629333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }