{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bec281e9-e1d5-4a7c-a536-ac180bfc09c0", "symbol": "ALQWA", "name": "Qwamplify", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.429, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.954, "architecture_energy": 57.754, "architecture_maturity": 14.212, "architecture_confidence": 87.063, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.63, "rotation_up": 14.14, "upward_expansion": 11.28, "deceleration": 40.27, "rotation_down": 68.79, "downward_expansion": 89.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.616667, 1.644308, 1.688314, 1.712742 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.6, "trend_reference": 1.734697, "distance_from_trend": -0.077649, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.417967, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.338287, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.173009, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.064327, "excess_performance": -0.117639, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077649, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004651, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.338287, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003985, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.18173, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035712, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.064327, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.105922, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 871, "relative_activity": 0.294934, "balance": 1.105922, "dry_up": 0.372647, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064007, "annualized_volatility": 0.429255, "from_high_reference": -0.298246, "from_low_reference": 0.19403 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.734697, "fair_value_reference": 2.417967, "structural_low": 1.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.036216, "positive_rate": 0.315789, "directional_follow_through": 0.605263, "median_excess_return": -0.024652, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 0.186567, "worst_return": -0.159649, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.049677, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.065719, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.378378, "worst_return": -0.324534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.121622, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.092354, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.441696, "worst_return": -0.420807, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009259, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018182, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.763021, "energy": 51.263781, "activity_lines": [ 1.671071, 1.717101, 1.738664, 1.745846 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.65, "volume": 50, "typical_volume": 3022.25, "trend": 1.75003, "fair_value": 2.440339, "relative_strength": -14.079024, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.405299, "energy": 57.074617, "activity_lines": [ 1.650524, 1.703085, 1.727803, 1.73907 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.61, "volume": 3141, "typical_volume": 3040.75, "trend": 1.746697, "fair_value": 2.433416, "relative_strength": -15.784957, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.371762, "energy": 65.910284, "activity_lines": [ 1.631858, 1.682341, 1.713465, 1.730036 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.62, "volume": 340, "typical_volume": 2918.6, "trend": 1.741363, "fair_value": 2.425724, "relative_strength": -15.91327, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.252521, "energy": 59.404276, "activity_lines": [ 1.624966, 1.663961, 1.701175, 1.721862 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.6, "volume": 871, "typical_volume": 2953.2, "trend": 1.734697, "fair_value": 2.417967, "relative_strength": -18.173009, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.953797, "energy": 57.754129, "activity_lines": [ 1.616667, 1.644308, 1.688314, 1.712742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }