{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bec2c42b-de7f-4362-9ff5-bad6bc16c57a", "symbol": "5209", "name": "CTCI Advanced Systems Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 78.32, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 30.638, "architecture_energy": 13.298, "architecture_maturity": 17.147, "architecture_confidence": 50.907, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.73, "rotation_up": 34.28, "upward_expansion": 37.39, "deceleration": 66.96, "rotation_down": 34.17, "downward_expansion": 16.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 157.9, 157.665444, 157.318955, 156.724423 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 162.5, "trend_reference": 156.793345, "distance_from_trend": 0.036396, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 145.091506, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.119983, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.432257, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.030653, "excess_performance": -0.410719, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036396, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004374, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.119983, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060012, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.254323, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014458, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030653, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.971678, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 173001, "relative_activity": 0.792042, "balance": 1.971678, "dry_up": 0.825406, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032283, "annualized_volatility": 0.126275, "from_high_reference": -0.077552, "from_low_reference": 0.195417 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 156.793345, "fair_value_reference": 145.091506, "structural_low": 149.344502, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.015857, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.010864, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.097561, "worst_return": -0.060606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.038523, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.040884, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.117143, "worst_return": -0.043243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.062715, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.090236, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.156805, 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"relative_strength": -26.510653, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.84099, "energy": 10.908003, "activity_lines": [ 157.346683, 158.437077, 156.829477, 156.63452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 152.5, "volume": 139064, "typical_volume": 220733.75, "trend": 156.708801, "fair_value": 144.637884, "relative_strength": -28.119181, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.643897, "energy": 19.233833, "activity_lines": [ 155.377807, 157.413561, 156.502509, 156.356844 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 156.0, "volume": 194020, "typical_volume": 210879.55, "trend": 156.745705, "fair_value": 144.77966, "relative_strength": -25.275041, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.403567, "energy": 18.601059, "activity_lines": [ 155.166667, 157.027882, 156.524673, 156.311115 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 157.5, "volume": 215069, "typical_volume": 214879.2, "trend": 156.84802, "fair_value": 144.920835, "relative_strength": -25.941436, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.366894, "energy": 14.841046, "activity_lines": [ 155.566667, 156.877989, 156.688825, 156.359779 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 162.5, "volume": 173001, "typical_volume": 218424.05, "trend": 156.793345, "fair_value": 145.091506, "relative_strength": -25.432257, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.63769, "energy": 13.297979, "activity_lines": [ 157.9, 157.665444, 157.318955, 156.724423 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }