{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bec3269b-8842-4090-a818-051293fcbba2", "symbol": "XPXJ", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Pacific ex Japan Screened UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.315, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.345, "architecture_energy": 91.429, "architecture_maturity": 8.337, "architecture_confidence": 57.536, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.91, "rotation_up": 85.55, "upward_expansion": 95.65, "deceleration": 41.84, "rotation_down": 8.05, "downward_expansion": 19.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 83.367333, 81.943272, 81.005048, 80.818559 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 84.970001, "trend_reference": 80.600667, "distance_from_trend": 0.05421, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 70.815962, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.199871, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.324665, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.062656, "excess_performance": -0.108235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05421, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022518, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.199871, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030707, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073247, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002071, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.062656, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.306424, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 163, "relative_activity": 0.012664, "balance": 1.306424, "dry_up": 0.217808, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016359, "annualized_volatility": 0.14013, "from_high_reference": -0.001175, "from_low_reference": 0.158419 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 80.600667, "fair_value_reference": 70.815962, "structural_low": 76.599998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.009129, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.433333, "median_excess_return": -0.007967, "regime_survival": 0.633333, "best_return": 0.081865, "worst_return": -0.061666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.007799, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.025522, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.078608, "worst_return": -0.100238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.01584, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.099706, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.079869, "worst_return": -0.11583, 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"energy": 60.021822, "activity_lines": [ 81.348665, 80.474363, 80.235524, 80.30286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 83.440002, "volume": 4215, "typical_volume": 14519.75, "trend": 80.333333, "fair_value": 70.663398, "relative_strength": -6.515234, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.632304, "energy": 78.430752, "activity_lines": [ 82.249333, 81.102545, 80.555191, 80.519419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 84.970001, "volume": 163, "typical_volume": 12871.4, "trend": 80.600667, "fair_value": 70.815962, "relative_strength": -7.324665, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.345243, "energy": 91.429397, "activity_lines": [ 83.367333, 81.943272, 81.005048, 80.818559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }