{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bec3bd30-8162-4e32-b8d1-7d43730a0d61", "symbol": "OIG", "name": "Oryx International Growth Fund Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.532, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 31.002, "architecture_energy": 29.984, "architecture_maturity": 25.253, "architecture_confidence": 46.642, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.09, "rotation_up": 49.69, "upward_expansion": 49.29, "deceleration": 31.87, "rotation_down": 26.8, "downward_expansion": 16.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 1284.666667, 1271.181818, 1265.202381, 1264.295699 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1320.0, "trend_reference": 1268.416667, "distance_from_trend": 0.040667, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1227.387821, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.075455, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.432708, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.056, "excess_performance": -0.010279, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040667, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002371, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.075455, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056786, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.054327, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027471, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.107825, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100847, "relative_activity": 2.932498, "balance": 2.107825, "dry_up": 2.0023, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046632, "annualized_volatility": 0.241946, "from_high_reference": -0.076923, "from_low_reference": 0.142857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1268.416667, "fair_value_reference": 1227.387821, "structural_low": 1155.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.012876, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.011636, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.204348, "worst_return": -0.270655, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.082105, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.061118, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.236052, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.048779, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008216, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.201717, "worst_return": -0.320225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.003846, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.115353, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.094737, "worst_return": -0.289326, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061538, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048387, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.10084, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.080357, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00207, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069672, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04817, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010121, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009901, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001812, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086331, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021277, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036585, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047619, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 1135.0, "volume": 36168, "typical_volume": 25552.35, "trend": 1185.416667, "fair_value": 1337.692308, "relative_strength": -1.810099, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"activity_lines": [ 1255.666667, 1258.136364, 1255.238095, 1260.688172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1252.5, "volume": 44660, "typical_volume": 27662.95, "trend": 1265.416667, "fair_value": 1224.727564, "relative_strength": -9.629327, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.915908, "energy": 13.005342, "activity_lines": [ 1255.333333, 1256.636364, 1255.464286, 1259.903226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1280.0, "volume": 87409, "typical_volume": 30694.15, "trend": 1266.5, "fair_value": 1226.009615, "relative_strength": -8.375615, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.184482, "energy": 8.14748, "activity_lines": [ 1264.666667, 1260.318182, 1258.452381, 1260.844086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1320.0, "volume": 100847, "typical_volume": 34389.45, "trend": 1268.416667, "fair_value": 1227.387821, "relative_strength": -5.432708, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.001696, "energy": 29.984178, "activity_lines": [ 1284.666667, 1271.181818, 1265.202381, 1264.295699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }