{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bec5946c-27c7-4b0a-993d-d33f8b6498e2", "symbol": "300886", "name": "Anhui Hyea Aromas Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.146, "architecture_energy": 44.241, "architecture_maturity": 64.392, "architecture_confidence": 63.955, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.5, "rotation_up": 25.14, "upward_expansion": 18.36, "deceleration": 66.56, "rotation_down": 45.77, "downward_expansion": 68.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.426, 21.342473, 23.209696, 24.637519 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.51, "trend_reference": 26.183734, "distance_from_trend": -0.140306, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.139133, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.027189, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.498179, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.210452, "excess_performance": -0.217852, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.140306, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069089, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.027189, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.333289, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.204982, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05638, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.210452, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.5124, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6265860, "relative_activity": 0.939121, "balance": 0.5124, "dry_up": 1.353945, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101598, "annualized_volatility": 0.391891, "from_high_reference": -0.353504, "from_low_reference": 0.210215 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.183734, "fair_value_reference": 23.139133, "structural_low": 18.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.051802, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.020828, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.202918, "worst_return": -0.057585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.073901, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.028053, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.319814, "worst_return": -0.041272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.015714, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.008785, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.050733, "worst_return": -0.165725, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 22.26, "volume": 10693695, "typical_volume": 6370717.15, "trend": 26.8244, "fair_value": 23.195917, "relative_strength": -28.319451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.237325, "energy": 84.595444, "activity_lines": [ 21.388264, 22.632437, 25.017211, 26.037364 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.92, "volume": 11735184, "typical_volume": 6693907.35, "trend": 26.664734, "fair_value": 23.181858, "relative_strength": -25.246518, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.510551, "energy": 73.774286, "activity_lines": [ 21.196381, 22.02931, 24.479963, 25.656435 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.66, "volume": 8590759, "typical_volume": 6679310.45, "trend": 26.4414, "fair_value": 23.159786, "relative_strength": -29.314231, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.536361, "energy": 64.046962, "activity_lines": [ 20.713557, 21.366546, 23.865001, 25.204517 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.440001, "volume": 9542557, "typical_volume": 6791168.25, "trend": 26.297067, "fair_value": 23.145679, "relative_strength": -20.964459, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.531315, "energy": 54.235077, "activity_lines": [ 20.943348, 21.200873, 23.465991, 24.881846 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.51, "volume": 6265860, "typical_volume": 6672049.7, "trend": 26.183734, "fair_value": 23.139133, "relative_strength": -20.498179, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.146047, "energy": 44.241333, "activity_lines": [ 21.426, 21.342473, 23.209696, 24.637519 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }