{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "bec5996b-3b1c-4276-be1f-9290c8cbd8b1",
    "symbol": "00895",
    "name": "Fubon MSCI ACWI IMI Select Future Mobility Top 30 Capped ETF",
    "exchange": "TAI",
    "country": "TW",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^TWII",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 34.109,
    "architecture_energy": 21.69,
    "architecture_maturity": 68.321,
    "architecture_confidence": 72.654,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 46.13,
        "rotation_up": 23.12,
        "upward_expansion": 56.05,
        "deceleration": 91.13,
        "rotation_down": 29.24,
        "downward_expansion": 19.72
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        49.488,
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        49.694905,
        47.928323
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 49.84,
    "trend_reference": 45.661333,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.091514,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 31.181667,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.598375,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -10.980532,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.194917,
    "excess_performance": -0.184395,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.091514,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.095732,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.598375,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.106105,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.109805,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.002387,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.194917,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.718316,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2499657,
      "relative_activity": 0.862146,
      "balance": 0.718316,
      "dry_up": 1.173844,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.048602,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.239656,
      "from_high_reference": -0.071016,
      "from_low_reference": 0.585746
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 45.661333,
      "fair_value_reference": 31.181667,
      "structural_low": 37.779999,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.045253,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.00968,
        "regime_survival": 0.416667,
        "best_return": 0.202497,
        "worst_return": -0.111565,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.205487,
        "positive_rate": 0.857143,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.857143,
        "median_excess_return": 0.030833,
        "regime_survival": 0.142857,
        "best_return": 0.359223,
        "worst_return": -0.09428,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.233893,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.08654,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.323658,
        "worst_return": 0.029855,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.392065,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.227159,
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        "worst_return": 0.107985,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "end": "2024-04-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.038477,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "return": -0.082773,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.152411,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 49.32,
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        "typical_volume": 2892137.5,
        "trend": 44.997333,
        "fair_value": 30.799167,
        "relative_strength": -11.380677,
        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 49.07,
        "volume": 5159570,
        "typical_volume": 2959828.95,
        "trend": 45.313,
        "fair_value": 30.988333,
        "relative_strength": -10.437869,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.671783,
        "energy": 22.905141,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 49.84,
        "volume": 2499657,
        "typical_volume": 2899342.3,
        "trend": 45.661333,
        "fair_value": 31.181667,
        "relative_strength": -10.980532,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 34.109181,
        "energy": 21.690245,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}