{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bec74198-0b08-4199-a290-a58250086ad2", "symbol": "IMD", "name": "I.M.D. International Medical Devices S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.75, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.049, "architecture_energy": 69.044, "architecture_maturity": 10.964, "architecture_confidence": 84.855, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.13, "rotation_up": 10.09, "upward_expansion": 15.36, "deceleration": 37.42, "rotation_down": 73.03, "downward_expansion": 91.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.258, 1.273455, 1.298937, 1.303379 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.3, "trend_reference": 1.315853, "distance_from_trend": -0.012048, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.336979, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.027658, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.434013, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.059561, "excess_performance": -0.230453, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012048, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017324, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.027658, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001474, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.17434, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030753, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.059561, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.868852, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21000, "relative_activity": 1.308411, "balance": 0.868852, "dry_up": 1.028037, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030769, "annualized_volatility": 0.276532, "from_high_reference": -0.289773, "from_low_reference": 0.111111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.315853, "fair_value_reference": 1.336979, "structural_low": 1.17, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.010723, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008006, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.12782, "worst_return": -0.062937, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.033638, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.026244, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.033638, "worst_return": 0.033638, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.061021, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.021429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.055944, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09489, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": 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"relative_strength": -21.270209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.975975, "energy": 86.232982, "activity_lines": [ 1.245333, 1.272, 1.300124, 1.304599 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.3, "volume": 21000, "typical_volume": 16050.0, "trend": 1.315853, "fair_value": 1.336979, "relative_strength": -17.434013, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.04895, "energy": 69.04428, "activity_lines": [ 1.258, 1.273455, 1.298937, 1.303379 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }