{ "ticker": { "uuid": "becf64a4-3c4f-4474-8492-9c43d67a5d23", "symbol": "EPAZ", "name": "Amundi S&P Eurozone Climate Paris Aligned UCITS ETF Dist", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.769, "architecture_energy": 64.529, "architecture_maturity": 39.314, "architecture_confidence": 83.975, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.2, "rotation_up": 56.87, "upward_expansion": 81.39, "deceleration": 61.67, "rotation_down": 25.51, "downward_expansion": 10.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.488333, 27.330909, 26.750548, 26.240065 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.285, "trend_reference": 25.746333, "distance_from_trend": 0.098603, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.781186, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.189386, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.576467, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.11666, "excess_performance": 0.05202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.098603, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037255, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.189386, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103346, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.045765, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0083, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.11666, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.42289, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 127, "relative_activity": 0.017315, "balance": 1.42289, "dry_up": 0.413826, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023171, "annualized_volatility": 0.181995, "from_high_reference": -0.001412, "from_low_reference": 0.240298 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.746333, "fair_value_reference": 23.781186, "structural_low": 22.805, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.019103, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00141, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.048734, "worst_return": -0.010528, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.442298, "energy": 87.540106, "activity_lines": [ 27.21, 26.714182, 25.950167, 25.654495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.115, "volume": 1268, "typical_volume": 6868.55, "trend": 25.419167, "fair_value": 23.612889, "relative_strength": 6.187673, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.527195, "energy": 81.466247, "activity_lines": [ 27.235667, 26.871091, 26.106952, 25.769806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.905001, "volume": 11484, "typical_volume": 7439.3, "trend": 25.4945, "fair_value": 23.65117, "relative_strength": 6.100025, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.729263, "energy": 65.352954, "activity_lines": [ 27.134667, 26.950455, 26.237786, 25.865667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.985001, "volume": 419, "typical_volume": 7452.8, "trend": 25.5745, "fair_value": 23.68949, "relative_strength": 5.043511, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.183746, "energy": 52.949379, "activity_lines": [ 27.064667, 27.014455, 26.372167, 25.961828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.254999, "volume": 111, "typical_volume": 7343.55, "trend": 25.652833, "fair_value": 23.730007, "relative_strength": 3.701049, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.360963, "energy": 49.685363, "activity_lines": [ 27.113667, 27.091182, 26.519619, 26.070247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.285, "volume": 127, "typical_volume": 7334.6, "trend": 25.746333, "fair_value": 23.781186, "relative_strength": 4.576467, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.768906, "energy": 64.528906, "activity_lines": [ 27.488333, 27.330909, 26.750548, 26.240065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }