{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bed0290f-10c3-46eb-9ae3-e4a990955009", "symbol": "GILD", "name": "Gilead Sciences Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 86.653, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -13.215, "architecture_energy": 10.569, "architecture_maturity": 17.719, "architecture_confidence": 71.16, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.21, "rotation_up": 30.37, "upward_expansion": 27.03, "deceleration": 44.66, "rotation_down": 23.73, "downward_expansion": 46.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 131.547333, 130.44377, 130.415458, 132.378465 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 133.21, "trend_reference": 134.908558, "distance_from_trend": -0.01259, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 96.905678, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.374636, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.617388, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.115757, "excess_performance": -0.30321, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01259, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020908, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.374636, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044288, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086174, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021929, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.115757, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.094913, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46435788, "relative_activity": 1.371898, "balance": 1.094913, "dry_up": 1.020066, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058749, "annualized_volatility": 0.195071, "from_high_reference": -0.142685, "from_low_reference": 0.251488 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 134.908558, "fair_value_reference": 96.905678, "structural_low": 120.594445, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.015224, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.017256, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.075314, "worst_return": -0.05, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.025342, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.021838, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.398526, "worst_return": -0.121455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.04293, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.151002, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.363085, "worst_return": 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0.344532, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07576, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.041553, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076431, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.148471, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034786, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": 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"energy": 29.478011, "activity_lines": [ 128.677128, 128.760441, 130.690657, 132.959971 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 134.28, "volume": 29685245, "typical_volume": 33299537.15, "trend": 133.915543, "fair_value": 95.756453, "relative_strength": -4.590062, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.532687, "energy": 16.238194, "activity_lines": [ 130.936667, 129.683187, 130.769524, 133.008214 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 129.31, "volume": 29061880, "typical_volume": 33116848.9, "trend": 134.119674, "fair_value": 96.138876, "relative_strength": -6.527025, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.614379, "energy": 18.598649, "activity_lines": [ 130.905333, 129.633012, 130.436303, 132.711082 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 130.21, "volume": 32925126, "typical_volume": 33400924.85, "trend": 134.455884, "fair_value": 96.516496, "relative_strength": -6.296278, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.386705, "energy": 15.627942, "activity_lines": [ 130.804, 129.735942, 130.250095, 132.458845 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 133.21, "volume": 46435788, "typical_volume": 33847833.6, "trend": 134.908558, "fair_value": 96.905678, "relative_strength": -8.617388, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.214522, "energy": 10.569317, "activity_lines": [ 131.547333, 130.44377, 130.415458, 132.378465 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }