{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bed3b958-4bf9-4bfc-83c5-4edb61fc7a31", "symbol": "0855", "name": "China Water Affairs Group Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.856, "architecture_energy": 53.879, "architecture_maturity": 85.06, "architecture_confidence": 88.9, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.3, "rotation_up": 16.66, "upward_expansion": 8.34, "deceleration": 44.09, "rotation_down": 62.24, "downward_expansion": 81.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.438, 4.495091, 4.534192, 4.606076 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.32, "trend_reference": 4.738133, "distance_from_trend": -0.088249, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.877189, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.114244, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.242905, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.188347, "excess_performance": -0.162431, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.088249, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048998, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.114244, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050044, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122429, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001436, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.188347, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.446508, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3911925, "relative_activity": 1.153411, "balance": 0.446508, "dry_up": 1.438515, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041756, "annualized_volatility": 0.178363, "from_high_reference": -0.338339, "from_low_reference": 0.003484 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.738133, "fair_value_reference": 4.877189, "structural_low": 4.305, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.003643, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": 0.012987, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.386777, "worst_return": -0.225296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.029851, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.007775, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.360562, "worst_return": -0.153846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.010362, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.068819, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.643542, "worst_return": -0.309535, "sufficient": true 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.166422, "energy": 19.375344, "activity_lines": [ 4.590333, 4.567273, 4.599579, 4.682152 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 4.48, "volume": 6835394, "typical_volume": 3499288.75, "trend": 4.803086, "fair_value": 4.881646, "relative_strength": -12.628065, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.625102, "energy": 33.759803, "activity_lines": [ 4.556, 4.556636, 4.583042, 4.659643 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 4.425, "volume": 4698222, "typical_volume": 3522609.15, "trend": 4.772198, "fair_value": 4.878494, "relative_strength": -13.471412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.935106, "energy": 37.504365, "activity_lines": [ 4.506, 4.534909, 4.562685, 4.63525 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 4.32, "volume": 3911925, "typical_volume": 3391613.5, "trend": 4.738133, "fair_value": 4.877189, "relative_strength": -12.242905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.856355, "energy": 53.878858, "activity_lines": [ 4.438, 4.495091, 4.534192, 4.606076 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }